Hindalco Industries Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

HINDALCO   662.10  6.60  0.99%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Hindalco Industries Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 665.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 761.76. Hindalco Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Hindalco Industries stock prices and determine the direction of Hindalco Industries Limited's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Hindalco Industries' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Hindalco Industries' Inventory is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Other Stockholder Equity is expected to grow to about 115.5 B, whereas Total Assets are forecasted to decline to about 1.3 T.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Hindalco Industries Limited is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Hindalco Industries 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 16th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Hindalco Industries Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 665.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.36, mean absolute percentage error of 304.94, and the sum of the absolute errors of 761.76.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hindalco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hindalco Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hindalco Industries Stock Forecast Pattern

JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Sep 26Oct 7Oct 15Oct 23Oct 31Nov 8Nov 19Nov 28Dec 6Dec 15650700750
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Hindalco Industries Hindalco Industries forecast
Backtest Hindalco IndustriesHindalco Industries Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Hindalco Industries Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hindalco Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hindalco Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 663.93 and 667.77, respectively. We have considered Hindalco Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
662.10
663.93
Downside
665.85
Expected Value
667.77
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hindalco Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hindalco Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.4791
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 1.1248
MADMean absolute deviation13.3643
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0193
SAESum of the absolute errors761.7625
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Hindalco Industries. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Hindalco Industries Limited and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Hindalco Industries

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hindalco Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
659.21661.13663.05
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
567.47569.39728.31
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
627.45661.75696.06
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
12.6016.1417.73
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hindalco Industries. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hindalco Industries' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hindalco Industries' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Hindalco Industries.

Other Forecasting Options for Hindalco Industries

For every potential investor in Hindalco, whether a beginner or expert, Hindalco Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hindalco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hindalco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hindalco Industries' price trends.

Hindalco Industries Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hindalco Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hindalco Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hindalco Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Hindalco Industries Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hindalco Industries' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hindalco Industries' current price.

Hindalco Industries Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hindalco Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hindalco Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hindalco Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hindalco Industries Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Hindalco Industries Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hindalco Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hindalco Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hindalco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Hindalco Stock

Hindalco Industries financial ratios help investors to determine whether Hindalco Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Hindalco with respect to the benefits of owning Hindalco Industries security.