Gulf Island Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GIFI Stock | USD 6.86 0.03 0.44% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gulf Island Fabrication on the next trading day is expected to be 6.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.85. Gulf Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Gulf Island's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Gulf |
Gulf Island Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gulf Island Fabrication on the next trading day is expected to be 6.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.85.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gulf Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gulf Island's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Gulf Island Stock Forecast Pattern
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Gulf Island Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Gulf Island's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gulf Island's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.61 and 10.11, respectively. We have considered Gulf Island's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gulf Island stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gulf Island stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.098 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0285 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1308 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0204 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.8478 |
Predictive Modules for Gulf Island
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gulf Island Fabrication. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Gulf Island
For every potential investor in Gulf, whether a beginner or expert, Gulf Island's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gulf Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gulf. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gulf Island's price trends.Gulf Island Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gulf Island stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gulf Island could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gulf Island by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Gulf Island Fabrication Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Gulf Island's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Gulf Island's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Gulf Island Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gulf Island stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gulf Island shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gulf Island stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gulf Island Fabrication entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Gulf Island Risk Indicators
The analysis of Gulf Island's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gulf Island's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gulf stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.17 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.23 | |||
| Variance | 10.46 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.81 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.58 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.68) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Gulf Island Fabrication offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Gulf Island's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Gulf Island Fabrication Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Gulf Island Fabrication Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gulf Island to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Funds Screener module to find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.
Is Oil & Gas Equipment & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Gulf Island. If investors know Gulf will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Gulf Island listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.617 | Earnings Share 1.08 | Revenue Per Share 10.172 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 6.494 | Return On Assets 0.038 |
The market value of Gulf Island Fabrication is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Gulf that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Gulf Island's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Gulf Island's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Gulf Island's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Gulf Island's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Gulf Island's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Gulf Island is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Gulf Island's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.