FIDSON HEALTHCARE Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

FIDSON Stock   15.40  0.00  0.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of FIDSON HEALTHCARE PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 16.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.16. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast FIDSON HEALTHCARE's stock prices and determine the direction of FIDSON HEALTHCARE PLC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of FIDSON HEALTHCARE's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in persons.
  
A naive forecasting model for FIDSON HEALTHCARE is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of FIDSON HEALTHCARE PLC value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

FIDSON HEALTHCARE Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of FIDSON HEALTHCARE PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 16.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.16.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FIDSON Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FIDSON HEALTHCARE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

FIDSON HEALTHCARE Stock Forecast Pattern

FIDSON HEALTHCARE Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting FIDSON HEALTHCARE's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FIDSON HEALTHCARE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.86 and 19.31, respectively. We have considered FIDSON HEALTHCARE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
15.40
16.09
Expected Value
19.31
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FIDSON HEALTHCARE stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FIDSON HEALTHCARE stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.9029
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3469
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0234
SAESum of the absolute errors21.1616
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of FIDSON HEALTHCARE PLC. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict FIDSON HEALTHCARE. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for FIDSON HEALTHCARE

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FIDSON HEALTHCARE PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for FIDSON HEALTHCARE

For every potential investor in FIDSON, whether a beginner or expert, FIDSON HEALTHCARE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FIDSON Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FIDSON. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FIDSON HEALTHCARE's price trends.

FIDSON HEALTHCARE Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FIDSON HEALTHCARE stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FIDSON HEALTHCARE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FIDSON HEALTHCARE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

FIDSON HEALTHCARE PLC Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of FIDSON HEALTHCARE's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of FIDSON HEALTHCARE's current price.

FIDSON HEALTHCARE Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FIDSON HEALTHCARE stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FIDSON HEALTHCARE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FIDSON HEALTHCARE stock market strength indicators, traders can identify FIDSON HEALTHCARE PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

FIDSON HEALTHCARE Risk Indicators

The analysis of FIDSON HEALTHCARE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FIDSON HEALTHCARE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fidson stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.