1st Colonial Pink Sheet Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| FCOB Stock | USD 14.70 0.10 0.68% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of 1st Colonial Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 14.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.58. 1st Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast 1st Colonial stock prices and determine the direction of 1st Colonial Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of 1st Colonial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
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1st Colonial Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of 1st Colonial Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 14.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.58.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict 1st Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that 1st Colonial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
1st Colonial Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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1st Colonial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting 1st Colonial's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. 1st Colonial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.72 and 15.76, respectively. We have considered 1st Colonial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of 1st Colonial pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent 1st Colonial pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0219 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1114 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0074 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.575 |
Predictive Modules for 1st Colonial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as 1st Colonial Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for 1st Colonial
For every potential investor in 1st, whether a beginner or expert, 1st Colonial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. 1st Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in 1st. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying 1st Colonial's price trends.1st Colonial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with 1st Colonial pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of 1st Colonial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing 1st Colonial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
1st Colonial Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of 1st Colonial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of 1st Colonial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
1st Colonial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how 1st Colonial pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading 1st Colonial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying 1st Colonial pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify 1st Colonial Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 14.7 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 14.7 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.05 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.1 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 36.47 |
1st Colonial Risk Indicators
The analysis of 1st Colonial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in 1st Colonial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting 1st pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5751 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.01 | |||
| Variance | 1.01 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in 1st Pink Sheet
1st Colonial financial ratios help investors to determine whether 1st Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 1st with respect to the benefits of owning 1st Colonial security.