Argo Group Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

ARGODelisted Stock  USD 29.74  0.03  0.10%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Argo Group International on the next trading day is expected to be 29.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.89. Argo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Argo Group polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Argo Group International as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Argo Group Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Argo Group International on the next trading day is expected to be 29.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.89.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Argo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Argo Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Argo Group Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Argo GroupArgo Group Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Argo Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Argo Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.5171
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.031
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0011
SAESum of the absolute errors1.8936
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Argo Group historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Argo Group

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Argo Group International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
29.7429.7429.74
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
25.1725.1732.71
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
29.6929.7129.73
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Argo Group. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Argo Group's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Argo Group's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Argo Group International.

Argo Group Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Argo Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Argo Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Argo Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Argo Group Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Argo Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Argo Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Argo Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Argo Group International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Argo Group Risk Indicators

The analysis of Argo Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Argo Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting argo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Argo Group

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Argo Group position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Argo Group will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Argo Stock

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  0.69EC Ecopetrol SA ADRPairCorr
  0.5PTAIY Astra International TbkPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Argo Group could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Argo Group when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Argo Group - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Argo Group International to buy it.
The correlation of Argo Group is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Argo Group moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Argo Group International moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Argo Group can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in price.
You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.

Other Consideration for investing in Argo Stock

If you are still planning to invest in Argo Group International check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Argo Group's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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