Alerus Financial Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

ALRS Stock  USD 19.99  0.17  0.86%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Alerus Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 20.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.85. Alerus Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Asset Turnover is likely to gain to 0.08 in 2024, whereas Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 2.48 in 2024. . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to gain to about 48.3 M in 2024, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 16.7 M in 2024.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Alerus Financial Corp is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Alerus Financial 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 23rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Alerus Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 20.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61, mean absolute percentage error of 0.79, and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.85.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alerus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alerus Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Alerus Financial Stock Forecast Pattern

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Alerus Financial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Alerus Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alerus Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.46 and 22.55, respectively. We have considered Alerus Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
19.99
20.01
Expected Value
22.55
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alerus Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alerus Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.5175
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0982
MADMean absolute deviation0.6114
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0282
SAESum of the absolute errors34.8475
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Alerus Financial. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Alerus Financial Corp and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Alerus Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alerus Financial Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
17.4519.9922.53
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17.6720.2122.75
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
17.6419.3821.51
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.230.310.38
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Alerus Financial

For every potential investor in Alerus, whether a beginner or expert, Alerus Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alerus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alerus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alerus Financial's price trends.

Alerus Financial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alerus Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alerus Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alerus Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Alerus Financial Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alerus Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alerus Financial's current price.

Alerus Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alerus Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alerus Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alerus Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alerus Financial Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Alerus Financial Risk Indicators

The analysis of Alerus Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alerus Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alerus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

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Additional Tools for Alerus Stock Analysis

When running Alerus Financial's price analysis, check to measure Alerus Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alerus Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Alerus Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alerus Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alerus Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alerus Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.