Alerus Financial Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ALRS Stock | USD 19.99 0.17 0.86% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alerus Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 18.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.05. Alerus Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Alerus |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Alerus Financial's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2012-12-31 | Previous Quarter 438.1 M | Current Value 66 M | Quarterly Volatility 108.3 M |
Alerus Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alerus Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 18.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56, mean absolute percentage error of 0.61, and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.05.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alerus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alerus Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alerus Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alerus Financial | Alerus Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Alerus Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alerus Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alerus Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.29 and 21.38, respectively. We have considered Alerus Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alerus Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alerus Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.6212 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5581 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0255 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 34.0454 |
Predictive Modules for Alerus Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alerus Financial Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Alerus Financial
For every potential investor in Alerus, whether a beginner or expert, Alerus Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alerus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alerus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alerus Financial's price trends.Alerus Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alerus Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alerus Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alerus Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alerus Financial Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alerus Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alerus Financial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alerus Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alerus Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alerus Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alerus Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alerus Financial Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Alerus Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alerus Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alerus Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alerus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.56 | |||
| Variance | 6.54 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Thematic Opportunities
Explore Investment Opportunities
Additional Tools for Alerus Stock Analysis
When running Alerus Financial's price analysis, check to measure Alerus Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alerus Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Alerus Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alerus Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alerus Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alerus Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.