Allegiant Travel Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average

ALGT Stock  USD 73.50  1.12  1.50%   
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Allegiant Travel on the next trading day is expected to be 83.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 406.29. Allegiant Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
At this time, Allegiant Travel's Receivables Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Asset Turnover is likely to gain to 1.18 in 2025, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 37.28 in 2025. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 18 M in 2025. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop to about 2.7 M in 2025.

Open Interest Against 2025-04-17 Allegiant Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Allegiant Travel's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Allegiant Travel's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Allegiant Travel stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Allegiant Travel's open interest, investors have to compare it to Allegiant Travel's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Allegiant Travel is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Allegiant. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Allegiant Travel is based on a synthetically constructed Allegiant Traveldaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Allegiant Travel 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 2nd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Allegiant Travel on the next trading day is expected to be 83.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.67, mean absolute percentage error of 107.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 406.29.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Allegiant Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Allegiant Travel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Allegiant Travel Stock Forecast Pattern

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Allegiant Travel Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Allegiant Travel's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Allegiant Travel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 80.76 and 87.20, respectively. We have considered Allegiant Travel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
73.50
83.98
Expected Value
87.20
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allegiant Travel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allegiant Travel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria87.8673
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 1.2865
MADMean absolute deviation9.6736
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1087
SAESum of the absolute errors406.2905
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Allegiant Travel 20-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Allegiant Travel

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allegiant Travel. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
70.3773.5976.81
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
66.1579.1482.36
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
71.1176.7382.34
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
81.7589.8399.71
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Allegiant Travel. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Allegiant Travel's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Allegiant Travel's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Allegiant Travel.

Other Forecasting Options for Allegiant Travel

For every potential investor in Allegiant, whether a beginner or expert, Allegiant Travel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Allegiant Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Allegiant. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Allegiant Travel's price trends.

Allegiant Travel Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Allegiant Travel stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Allegiant Travel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Allegiant Travel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Allegiant Travel Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Allegiant Travel's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Allegiant Travel's current price.

Allegiant Travel Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Allegiant Travel stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Allegiant Travel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Allegiant Travel stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Allegiant Travel entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Allegiant Travel Risk Indicators

The analysis of Allegiant Travel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Allegiant Travel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting allegiant stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Additional Tools for Allegiant Stock Analysis

When running Allegiant Travel's price analysis, check to measure Allegiant Travel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Allegiant Travel is operating at the current time. Most of Allegiant Travel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Allegiant Travel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Allegiant Travel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Allegiant Travel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.