Shenwan Hongyuan Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average

000166 Stock   5.41  0.04  0.74%   
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Shenwan Hongyuan Group on the next trading day is expected to be 5.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.84. Shenwan Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Shenwan Hongyuan stock prices and determine the direction of Shenwan Hongyuan Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Shenwan Hongyuan's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Shenwan Hongyuan's Total Assets are projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Other Liabilities is expected to grow to about 17.2 B, whereas Total Stockholder Equity is forecasted to decline to about 56.4 B.
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Shenwan Hongyuan Group is based on a synthetically constructed Shenwan Hongyuandaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Shenwan Hongyuan 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Shenwan Hongyuan Group on the next trading day is expected to be 5.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.84.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Shenwan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Shenwan Hongyuan's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Shenwan Hongyuan Stock Forecast Pattern

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Shenwan Hongyuan Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Shenwan Hongyuan's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Shenwan Hongyuan's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.29 and 8.50, respectively. We have considered Shenwan Hongyuan's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5.41
5.40
Expected Value
8.50
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Shenwan Hongyuan stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Shenwan Hongyuan stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria78.1839
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0341
MADMean absolute deviation0.1425
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0256
SAESum of the absolute errors5.8405
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Shenwan Hongyuan 20-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Shenwan Hongyuan

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shenwan Hongyuan. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.235.418.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2.155.338.51
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.040.040.05
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Shenwan Hongyuan. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Shenwan Hongyuan's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Shenwan Hongyuan's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Shenwan Hongyuan.

Other Forecasting Options for Shenwan Hongyuan

For every potential investor in Shenwan, whether a beginner or expert, Shenwan Hongyuan's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Shenwan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Shenwan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Shenwan Hongyuan's price trends.

Shenwan Hongyuan Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Shenwan Hongyuan stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Shenwan Hongyuan could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Shenwan Hongyuan by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Shenwan Hongyuan Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Shenwan Hongyuan's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Shenwan Hongyuan's current price.

Shenwan Hongyuan Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Shenwan Hongyuan stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Shenwan Hongyuan shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Shenwan Hongyuan stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Shenwan Hongyuan Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Shenwan Hongyuan Risk Indicators

The analysis of Shenwan Hongyuan's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Shenwan Hongyuan's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting shenwan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Shenwan Stock

Shenwan Hongyuan financial ratios help investors to determine whether Shenwan Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Shenwan with respect to the benefits of owning Shenwan Hongyuan security.