China Greatwall Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

000066 Stock   15.95  0.05  0.31%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of China Greatwall Computer on the next trading day is expected to be 19.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 140.70. China Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast China Greatwall stock prices and determine the direction of China Greatwall Computer's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of China Greatwall's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, China Greatwall's Total Current Liabilities is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Total Stockholder Equity is expected to grow to about 13.3 B, whereas Total Assets are forecasted to decline to about 22.6 B.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through China Greatwall price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

China Greatwall Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of China Greatwall Computer on the next trading day is expected to be 19.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.31, mean absolute percentage error of 8.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 140.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict China Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that China Greatwall's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

China Greatwall Stock Forecast Pattern

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China Greatwall Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting China Greatwall's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. China Greatwall's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.09 and 25.51, respectively. We have considered China Greatwall's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
15.95
19.80
Expected Value
25.51
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of China Greatwall stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent China Greatwall stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.2389
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.3066
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1537
SAESum of the absolute errors140.7031
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as China Greatwall Computer historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for China Greatwall

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Greatwall Computer. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.5416.2521.96
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.9615.6721.38
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
14.7516.4818.22
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.050.050.05
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as China Greatwall. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against China Greatwall's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, China Greatwall's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in China Greatwall Computer.

Other Forecasting Options for China Greatwall

For every potential investor in China, whether a beginner or expert, China Greatwall's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. China Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in China. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying China Greatwall's price trends.

China Greatwall Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with China Greatwall stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of China Greatwall could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing China Greatwall by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

China Greatwall Computer Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of China Greatwall's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of China Greatwall's current price.

China Greatwall Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how China Greatwall stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading China Greatwall shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying China Greatwall stock market strength indicators, traders can identify China Greatwall Computer entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

China Greatwall Risk Indicators

The analysis of China Greatwall's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in China Greatwall's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting china stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in China Stock

China Greatwall financial ratios help investors to determine whether China Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in China with respect to the benefits of owning China Greatwall security.