Ultrapar Participacoes Sa Stock Volatility
| UGP Stock | USD 2.89 0.06 2.12% |
Currently, Ultrapar Participacoes SA is relatively risky. Ultrapar Participacoes owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of close to zero, which indicates the firm had a close to zero % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-three technical indicators for Ultrapar Participacoes SA, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please validate Ultrapar Participacoes' Coefficient Of Variation of (2,164), risk adjusted performance of (0.03), and Variance of 8.22 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0048%. Key indicators related to Ultrapar Participacoes' volatility include:
90 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 90 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Ultrapar Participacoes Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Ultrapar daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Ultrapar's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Ultrapar Participacoes volatility.
Ultrapar |
ESG Sustainability
While most ESG disclosures are voluntary, Ultrapar Participacoes' sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to Ultrapar Participacoes' managers and investors.Environmental | Governance | Social |
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Ultrapar Participacoes can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Ultrapar Participacoes at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Ultrapar stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Ultrapar Participacoes' stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.
Moving together with Ultrapar Stock
| 0.88 | DINO | HF Sinclair Corp | PairCorr |
| 0.7 | BPT | BP Prudhoe Bay | PairCorr |
| 0.88 | IEP | Icahn Enterprises Earnings Call Today | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | MPC | Marathon Petroleum Corp | PairCorr |
Moving against Ultrapar Stock
| 0.66 | AE | Adams Resources Energy | PairCorr |
| 0.41 | DKL | Delek Logistics Partners | PairCorr |
| 0.41 | PTLE | PTL LTD Ordinary | PairCorr |
| 0.41 | CAPL | Crossamerica Partners | PairCorr |
Ultrapar Participacoes Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Ultrapar Participacoes' beta coefficient measures the volatility of Ultrapar stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Ultrapar stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Ultrapar Participacoes's beta of 0.7 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Ultrapar Participacoes stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Ultrapar Participacoes SA exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.06 and kurtosis of 0.05. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Ultrapar Participacoes' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Ultrapar Participacoes' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Ultrapar Participacoes Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Ultrapar Participacoes correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)Ultrapar Beta |
Ultrapar standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 2.86 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Ultrapar Participacoes's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Ultrapar Participacoes' daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in ultrapar stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Ultrapar Participacoes.
Using Ultrapar Put Option to Manage Risk
Put options written on Ultrapar Participacoes grant holders of the option the right to sell a specified amount of Ultrapar Participacoes at a specified price within a specified time frame. The put buyer has a limited loss and, while not fully unlimited gains, as the price of Ultrapar Stock cannot fall below zero, the put buyer does gain as the price drops. So, one way investors can hedge Ultrapar Participacoes' position is by buying a put option against it. The put option used this way is usually referred to as insurance. If an undesired outcome occurs and loss on holding Ultrapar Participacoes will be realized, the loss incurred will be offset by the profits made with the option trade.
Ultrapar Participacoes' PUT expiring on 2025-05-16
Profit |
| Ultrapar Participacoes Price At Expiration |
Current Ultrapar Participacoes Insurance Chain
| Delta | Gamma | Open Int | Expiration | Current Spread | Last Price | |||
Put | UGP250516P00005000 | -0.766571 | 0.1909 | 1 | 2025-05-16 | 2.1 - 2.55 | 0.0 | View |
Ultrapar Participacoes Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Ultrapar Participacoes stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Ultrapar Participacoes' price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Ultrapar Participacoes' stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Ultrapar Participacoes' volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of stock volatility measures Ultrapar Participacoes' fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Ultrapar Participacoes' future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Ultrapar Participacoes' current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Ultrapar Participacoes' to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Ultrapar Participacoes Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Ultrapar Participacoes Projected Return Density Against Market
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Ultrapar Participacoes has a beta of 0.7022 . This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Ultrapar Participacoes average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ultrapar Participacoes SA will be expected to be much smaller as well.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Ultrapar Participacoes or Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Ultrapar Participacoes' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Ultrapar stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Ultrapar Participacoes SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives an Ultrapar Participacoes Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Ultrapar Participacoes Stock Risk Measures
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the coefficient of variation of Ultrapar Participacoes is 59300.89. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 8.2 and standard deviation of 2.86. The mean deviation of Ultrapar Participacoes SA is currently at 2.2. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.73
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.70 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.86 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Ultrapar Participacoes Stock Return Volatility
Ultrapar Participacoes historical daily return volatility represents how much of Ultrapar Participacoes stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The enterprise has volatility of 2.8638% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial accepts 0.7366% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About Ultrapar Participacoes Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Ultrapar Participacoes or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Ultrapar Participacoes may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Ultrapar's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Ultrapar Participacoes and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Ultrapar Participacoes fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Selling And Marketing Expenses | 2.6 B | 2.2 B | |
| Market Cap | 53.1 B | 55.8 B |
Ultrapar Participacoes' stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on Ultrapar Stock over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much Ultrapar Participacoes' price varies over time.
3 ways to utilize Ultrapar Participacoes' volatility to invest better
Higher Ultrapar Participacoes' stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Ultrapar Participacoes stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Ultrapar Participacoes stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Ultrapar Participacoes investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Ultrapar Participacoes' stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Ultrapar Participacoes' stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Ultrapar Participacoes Investment Opportunity
Ultrapar Participacoes SA has a volatility of 2.86 and is 3.86 times more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial. 25 percent of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Ultrapar Participacoes. You can use Ultrapar Participacoes SA to enhance the returns of your portfolios. The stock experiences an unexpected upward trend. Watch out for market signals. Check odds of Ultrapar Participacoes to be traded at $3.47 in 90 days.Average diversification
The correlation between Ultrapar Participacoes SA and DJI is 0.18 (i.e., Average diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Ultrapar Participacoes SA and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Ultrapar Participacoes Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ultrapar Participacoes' secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ultrapar Participacoes' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Ultrapar Participacoes stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.19) | |||
| Mean Deviation | 2.2 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | (2,164) | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.87 | |||
| Variance | 8.22 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.05) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Ultrapar Participacoes Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Ultrapar Participacoes as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Ultrapar Participacoes' systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Ultrapar Participacoes' unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Ultrapar Participacoes SA.
Additional Tools for Ultrapar Stock Analysis
When running Ultrapar Participacoes' price analysis, check to measure Ultrapar Participacoes' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ultrapar Participacoes is operating at the current time. Most of Ultrapar Participacoes' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ultrapar Participacoes' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ultrapar Participacoes' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ultrapar Participacoes to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.