Arrow Managed Futures Fund Volatility
| MFTNX Fund | USD 5.73 0.09 1.55% |
Arrow Managed Futures secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0224, which signifies that the fund had a -0.0224% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Arrow Managed Futures exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Arrow Managed's Mean Deviation of 0.9748, risk adjusted performance of (0.02), and Standard Deviation of 1.21 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. Key indicators related to Arrow Managed's volatility include:
30 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 30 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Arrow Managed Mutual Fund volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Arrow daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Arrow's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Arrow Managed volatility.
Arrow |
Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game with Arrow Managed. They may decide to buy additional shares of Arrow Managed at lower prices to lower the average cost per share, thereby improving their portfolio's performance when markets normalize.
Moving together with Arrow Mutual Fund
Arrow Managed Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Arrow Managed's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Arrow mutual fund compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Arrow mutual fund's returns against your selected market. In other words, Arrow Managed's beta of 0.49 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Arrow Managed mutual fund can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Arrow Managed Futures exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.44 and kurtosis of -0.32. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Arrow Managed's mutual fund risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Arrow Managed's mutual fund price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Arrow Managed Futures Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Arrow Managed correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)Arrow Beta |
Arrow standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 1.21 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Arrow Managed's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Arrow Managed's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in arrow mutual fund tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Arrow Managed.
Arrow Managed Futures Mutual Fund Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Arrow Managed fund price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Arrow Managed's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Arrow Managed's mutual fund to predict their future moves. A fund that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A mutual fund with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile fund is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Arrow Managed's volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of fund volatility measures Arrow Managed's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Arrow Managed's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the mutual fund.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Arrow Managed's current market price. This means that the fund will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Arrow Managed's to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Arrow Managed Futures Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Arrow Managed Projected Return Density Against Market
Assuming the 90 days horizon Arrow Managed has a beta of 0.4874 . This indicates as returns on the market go up, Arrow Managed average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Arrow Managed Futures will be expected to be much smaller as well.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Arrow Managed or Arrow Funds sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Arrow Managed's price will be affected by overall mutual fund market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Arrow fund's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Arrow Managed Futures has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives an Arrow Managed Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a fund's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Arrow Managed Mutual Fund Risk Measures
Assuming the 90 days horizon the coefficient of variation of Arrow Managed is -4455.67. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 1.47 and standard deviation of 1.21. The mean deviation of Arrow Managed Futures is currently at 0.98. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.79
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.49 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.21 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Arrow Managed Mutual Fund Return Volatility
Arrow Managed historical daily return volatility represents how much of Arrow Managed fund's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The fund shows 1.2134% volatility of returns over 90 . By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial accepts 0.7982% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About Arrow Managed Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Arrow Managed or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Arrow Managed may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Arrow's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Arrow Managed and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Arrow Managed fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.The fund pursues its investment objective by implementing a fixed income strategy and a managed futures strategy. It executes its managed futures strategy primarily by investing up to 25 percent of its total assets in a wholly-owned and controlled subsidiary. It executes its fixed income strategy primarily by investing directly or indirectly through other funds in U.S. government securities, short-term, high quality fixed-income securities, money market instruments, overnight and fixed-term repurchase agreements, cash, and other cash equivalents with maturities of one year or less.
Arrow Managed's stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on Arrow Mutual Fund over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much Arrow Managed's price varies over time.
3 ways to utilize Arrow Managed's volatility to invest better
Higher Arrow Managed's fund volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Arrow Managed Futures fund is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Arrow Managed Futures fund volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Arrow Managed Futures investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Arrow Managed's fund can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Arrow Managed's fund relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Arrow Managed Investment Opportunity
Arrow Managed Futures has a volatility of 1.21 and is 1.51 times more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial. 10 percent of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Arrow Managed. You can use Arrow Managed Futures to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. The mutual fund experiences a somewhat bearish sentiment, but the market may correct it shortly. Check odds of Arrow Managed to be traded at $5.56 in 90 days.Weak diversification
The correlation between Arrow Managed Futures and DJI is 0.32 (i.e., Weak diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Arrow Managed Futures and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Arrow Managed Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Arrow Managed's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arrow Managed's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Arrow Managed mutual fund's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.02) | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.09) | |||
| Mean Deviation | 0.9748 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | (3,249) | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Variance | 1.45 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.06) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential mutual funds, we recommend comparing similar funds with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Arrow Managed Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Arrow Managed as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Arrow Managed's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Arrow Managed's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Arrow Managed Futures.
Other Information on Investing in Arrow Mutual Fund
Arrow Managed financial ratios help investors to determine whether Arrow Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Arrow with respect to the benefits of owning Arrow Managed security.
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