Alarm Holdings Valuation

ALRM Stock  USD 59.27  0.88  1.51%   
At this time, the firm appears to be overvalued. Alarm Holdings shows a prevailing Real Value of $50.56 per share. The current price of the firm is $59.27. Our model approximates the value of Alarm Holdings from analyzing the firm fundamentals such as profit margin of 0.13 %, and Return On Equity of 0.16 as well as examining its technical indicators and probability of bankruptcy.
Overvalued
Today
59.27
Please note that Alarm Holdings' price fluctuation is very steady at this time. Calculation of the real value of Alarm Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon. Increasing Alarm Holdings' time horizon generally increases the accuracy of value calculation and significantly improves the predictive power of the methodology used.
The fair value of the Alarm stock is determined by what a typical buyer is willing to pay for full or partial control of Alarm Holdings. Since Alarm Holdings is currently traded on the exchange, buyers and sellers on that exchange determine the market value of Alarm Stock. However, Alarm Holdings' intrinsic value may or may not be the same as its current market price, in which case there is an opportunity to profit from the mispricing, assuming the market price will eventually merge with its intrinsic value.
Historical Market  59.27 Real  50.56 Hype  59.27 Naive  60.46
The intrinsic value of Alarm Holdings' stock can be calculated using various methods such as discounted cash flow analysis, price-to-earnings ratio, or price-to-book ratio. That value may differ from its current market price, which is determined by supply and demand factors such as investor sentiment, market trends, news, and other external factors that may influence Alarm Holdings' stock price. It is important to note that the real value of any stock may change over time based on changes in the company's performance.
50.56
Real Value
65.20
Upside
Estimating the potential upside or downside of Alarm Holdings helps investors to forecast how Alarm stock's addition to their portfolios will impact the overall performance. We also use other valuation drivers to help us estimate the true value of Alarm Holdings more accurately as focusing exclusively on Alarm Holdings' fundamentals will not take into account other important factors:
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
56.7359.1961.64
Details
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
58.0359.2760.51
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
59.2160.4661.70
Details

Alarm Holdings Total Value Analysis

Alarm Holdings is presently projected to have valuation of 2.73 B with market capitalization of 2.9 B, debt of 1.06 B, and cash on hands of 643.38 M. Please note that valuation may be misleading and is a subject to auditing or accounting errors. We encourage investors to vigilantly validate all of the Alarm Holdings fundamentals before making equity appraisal based on enterprise value of the company
  Takeover PriceMarket CapDebt ObligationsCash
2.73 B
2.9 B
1.06 B
643.38 M

Alarm Holdings Investor Information

About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Alarm Holdings was presently reported as 14.64. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.54. Alarm Holdings had not issued any dividends in recent years. Based on the key indicators related to Alarm Holdings' liquidity, profitability, solvency, and operating efficiency, Alarm Holdings is not in a good financial situation at this time. It has a very high probability of going through financial hardship in April.

Alarm Holdings Asset Utilization

The asset utilization indicator refers to the revenue earned for every dollar of assets a company currently reports. Alarm Holdings has an asset utilization ratio of 46.11 percent. This suggests that the Company is making $0.46 for each dollar of assets. An increasing asset utilization means that Alarm Holdings is more efficient with each dollar of assets it utilizes for everyday operations.

Alarm Holdings Ownership Allocation

Alarm Holdings holds a total of 49.65 Million outstanding shares. The majority of Alarm Holdings outstanding shares are owned by other corporate entities. These outside corporations are usually referred to as non-private investors looking to acquire positions in Alarm Holdings to benefit from reduced commissions. Consequently, institutional investors are subject to a different set of regulations than regular investors in Alarm Holdings. Please pay attention to any change in the institutional holdings of Alarm Holdings as this could imply that something significant has changed or is about to change at the company. Also note that nearly two million thirty-five thousand five hundred twenty-three invesors are currently shorting Alarm Holdings expressing very little confidence in its future performance.

Alarm Holdings Profitability Analysis

The company reported the previous year's revenue of 939.83 M. Net Income was 122.51 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 613.68 M.

About Alarm Holdings Valuation

We use absolute and relative valuation methodologies to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alarm Holdings. In general, an absolute valuation paradigm, as applied to this company, attempts to find the value of Alarm Holdings based exclusively on its fundamental and basic technical indicators. By analyzing Alarm Holdings's financials, quarterly and monthly indicators, and their related drivers, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Alarm Holdings's intrinsic value. As compared to an absolute model, our relative valuation model uses a comparative analysis of Alarm Holdings. We calculate exposure to Alarm Holdings's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, and relevant financial multiples and ratios and then compare them to those of Alarm Holdings's related companies.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. provides cloud-based solutions for smart residential and commercial properties in the United States and internationally. Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is based in Tysons, Virginia. Alarm operates under SoftwareApplication classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 1606 people.

Alarm Holdings Growth Indicators

Investing in growth stocks can be very risky. If the company such as Alarm Holdings does not do well, investors take a loss on the stock when it is time to sell. Also, because growth stocks typically do not pay dividends, the only opportunity an investor has to make money on their investment is when they eventually sell their shares.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding58 M
Quarterly Earnings Growth Y O Y-0.039
Forward Price Earnings25.5754
When determining whether Alarm Holdings is a strong investment it is important to analyze Alarm Holdings' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Alarm Holdings' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Alarm Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Alarm Holdings. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in metropolitan statistical area.
To learn how to invest in Alarm Stock, please use our How to Invest in Alarm Holdings guide.
You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Is Business Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alarm Holdings. If investors know Alarm will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alarm Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Alarm Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alarm that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alarm Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alarm Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alarm Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alarm Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alarm Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alarm Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alarm Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.