ALIBABA GROUP HLDG Price Prediction
| 01609WAR3 | 93.59 1.90 1.99% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
45
Oversold | Overbought |
Using ALIBABA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ALIBABA GROUP HLDG from the perspective of ALIBABA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in ALIBABA to buy its bond at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying ALIBABA because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell bonds at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
ALIBABA after-hype prediction price | $ 93.59 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as bond price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
ALIBABA |
ALIBABA After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ALIBABA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ALIBABA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Bond prices, such as prices of ALIBABA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ALIBABA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ALIBABA's bond value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ALIBABA's historical news coverage. ALIBABA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 92.96 and 94.22, respectively. We have considered ALIBABA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ALIBABA is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ALIBABA GROUP HLDG is based on 3 months time horizon.
ALIBABA Bond Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Corporate Bond such as ALIBABA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ALIBABA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Bond price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ALIBABA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | Any time |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
93.59 | 93.59 | 0.00 |
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ALIBABA Hype Timeline
ALIBABA GROUP HLDG is at this time traded for 93.59. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.18. ALIBABA is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.12%. %. The volatility of related hype on ALIBABA is about 42.28%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 93.41. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be any time. Check out ALIBABA Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.ALIBABA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ALIBABA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ALIBABA's future price movements. Getting to know how ALIBABA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ALIBABA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ENTG | Entegris | 3.58 | 8 per month | 2.64 | (0.03) | 3.08 | (3.96) | 12.71 | |
| ON | ON Semiconductor | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.84 | (4.77) | 10.87 | |
| MTSI | MACOM Technology Solutions | 1.86 | 12 per month | 1.63 | 0.15 | 5.00 | (3.17) | 17.30 | |
| ARIS | Aris Water Solutions | (0.81) | 9 per month | 2.22 | 0.18 | 6.46 | (4.37) | 30.54 | |
| EDN | Empresa Distribuidora y | 1.47 | 5 per month | 1.32 | 0.34 | 7.02 | (2.98) | 12.33 | |
| IPGP | IPG Photonics | 1.55 | 6 per month | 1.59 | 0.13 | 4.86 | (2.82) | 11.69 | |
| KLAC | KLA Tencor | (19.71) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.24 | (3.55) | 20.36 | |
| AMKR | Amkor Technology | 0.1 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.95 | (4.80) | 10.14 |
ALIBABA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ALIBABA price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ALIBABA using various technical indicators. When you analyze ALIBABA charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About ALIBABA Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of ALIBABA stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as ALIBABA GROUP HLDG, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of ALIBABA based on analysis of ALIBABA hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to ALIBABA's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to ALIBABA's related companies.
Story Coverage note for ALIBABA
The number of cover stories for ALIBABA depends on current market conditions and ALIBABA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ALIBABA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ALIBABA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in ALIBABA Bond
ALIBABA financial ratios help investors to determine whether ALIBABA Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ALIBABA with respect to the benefits of owning ALIBABA security.