Sally Beauty Holdings Stock Price Prediction
| SBH Stock | USD 9.58 0.38 4.13% |
Momentum 27
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.657 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.3843 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.8271 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.9686 | Wall Street Target Price 12.75 |
Using Sally Beauty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sally Beauty Holdings from the perspective of Sally Beauty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Sally Beauty using Sally Beauty's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Sally using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Sally Beauty's stock price.
Sally Beauty Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Sally Beauty's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Sally. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Sally Beauty stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 11.7748 | Short Percent 0.2203 | Short Ratio 6.22 | Shares Short Prior Month 12.3 M | 50 Day MA 10.9118 |
Sally Beauty Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Sally Beauty's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Sally. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Sally can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Sally Beauty Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Sally Beauty's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Sally Beauty.
Sally Beauty Implied Volatility | 1.36 |
Sally Beauty's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Sally Beauty Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Sally Beauty's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Sally Beauty stock will not fluctuate a lot when Sally Beauty's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Sally Beauty to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Sally because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Sally Beauty after-hype prediction price | USD 9.7 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Sally contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Sally Beauty Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.085% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With Sally Beauty trading at USD 9.58, that is roughly USD 0.008143 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Sally Beauty's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Sally Beauty Holdings options at the current volatility level of 1.36%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sally |
Sally Beauty After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Sally Beauty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sally Beauty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Sally Beauty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Sally Beauty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Sally Beauty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sally Beauty's historical news coverage. Sally Beauty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.12 and 12.28, respectively. We have considered Sally Beauty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Sally Beauty is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sally Beauty Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Sally Beauty Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Sally Beauty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sally Beauty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sally Beauty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.62 | 2.63 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
9.58 | 9.70 | 1.68 |
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Sally Beauty Hype Timeline
On the 25th of February Sally Beauty Holdings is traded for 9.58. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Sally is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 9.7 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 1.68%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.62%. The volatility of related hype on Sally Beauty is about 4734.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.61. The company reported the last year's revenue of 3.72 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 153.41 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.9 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Sally Beauty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Sally Beauty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Sally Beauty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sally Beauty's future price movements. Getting to know how Sally Beauty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sally Beauty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LESL | Leslies | (0.04) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 8.70 | (7.26) | 41.35 | |
| EYE | National Vision Holdings | (0.23) | 10 per month | 2.33 | 0.04 | 4.52 | (4.45) | 11.43 | |
| SPWH | Sportsmans | (0.13) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 8.49 | (6.69) | 25.49 | |
| HZO | MarineMax | (1.19) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.54 | (4.23) | 21.26 | |
| ODP | ODP Corp | (0.22) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.25 | (5.10) | 14.90 | |
| FLWS | 1 800 FLOWERSCOM | (0.14) | 10 per month | 3.28 | 0.0004 | 5.39 | (5.07) | 15.19 | |
| CASY | Caseys General Stores | 2.48 | 10 per month | 1.24 | 0.04 | 2.21 | (1.94) | 6.37 | |
| BGFV | Big 5 Sporting | (0.03) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 4.82 | (5.03) | 52.38 | |
| CONN | Conns Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sally Beauty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Sally price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sally using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sally charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Sally Beauty Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Sally Beauty stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Sally Beauty Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Sally Beauty based on analysis of Sally Beauty hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Sally Beauty's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Sally Beauty's related companies. | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 1.34 | 1.41 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.44 | 0.77 |
Story Coverage note for Sally Beauty
The number of cover stories for Sally Beauty depends on current market conditions and Sally Beauty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sally Beauty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sally Beauty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Sally Beauty Short Properties
Sally Beauty's future price predictability will typically decrease when Sally Beauty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Sally Beauty Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Sally Beauty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sally Beauty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 106.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 32.8 M |
Complementary Tools for Sally Stock analysis
When running Sally Beauty's price analysis, check to measure Sally Beauty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sally Beauty is operating at the current time. Most of Sally Beauty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sally Beauty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sally Beauty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sally Beauty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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