Pdd Holdings Stock Price Prediction
| PDD Stock | USD 124.16 2.62 2.16% |
Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.596 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 22.4977 | EPS Estimate Current Year 81.6905 | EPS Estimate Next Year 91.5576 | Wall Street Target Price 147.1131 |
Using PDD Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of PDD Holdings from the perspective of PDD Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards PDD Holdings using PDD Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards PDD using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of PDD Holdings' stock price.
PDD Holdings Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in PDD Holdings' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards PDD. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of PDD Holdings stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 122.7658 | Short Percent 0.0347 | Short Ratio 3.8 | Shares Short Prior Month 25.6 M | 50 Day MA 104.8372 |
PDD Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to PDD Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in PDD. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding PDD can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around PDD Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of PDD Holdings' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about PDD Holdings.
PDD Holdings Implied Volatility | 0.57 |
PDD Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of PDD Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if PDD Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that PDD Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when PDD Holdings' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in PDD Holdings to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying PDD because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
PDD Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 124.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current PDD contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that PDD Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0356% per day over the life of the 2025-05-16 option contract. With PDD Holdings trading at USD 124.16, that is roughly USD 0.0442 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating PDD Holdings' daily price movement you should consider acquiring PDD Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.57%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
PDD |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PDD Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
PDD Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of PDD Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in PDD Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of PDD Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
PDD Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting PDD Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on PDD Holdings' historical news coverage. PDD Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 120.98 and 127.42, respectively. We have considered PDD Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
PDD Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of PDD Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
PDD Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as PDD Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PDD Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with PDD Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 3.22 | 0.04 | 0.18 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
124.16 | 124.20 | 0.03 |
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PDD Holdings Hype Timeline
On the 17th of February 2025 PDD Holdings is traded for 124.16. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.18. PDD is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 124.2 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.14%. The volatility of related hype on PDD Holdings is about 253.1%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 124.34. The company reported the last year's revenue of 247.64 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 60.03 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 230.93 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out PDD Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.PDD Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to PDD Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict PDD Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how PDD Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how PDD Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BABA | Alibaba Group Holding | (0.87) | 7 per month | 1.64 | 0.17 | 6.22 | (3.00) | 11.23 | |
| SE | Sea | (0.07) | 6 per month | 1.29 | 0.24 | 4.64 | (2.50) | 14.60 | |
| MELI | MercadoLibre | 7.30 | 7 per month | 1.87 | 0.09 | 3.92 | (2.94) | 10.05 | |
| VIPS | Vipshop Holdings Limited | 0.57 | 11 per month | 1.97 | 0.06 | 3.89 | (4.01) | 15.79 | |
| AMZN | Amazon Inc | 0.82 | 7 per month | 1.59 | 0.09 | 2.48 | (2.43) | 7.78 | |
| JD | JD Inc Adr | 0.70 | 9 per month | 2.70 | 0.05 | 5.22 | (4.12) | 15.67 | |
| GLBE | Global E Online | 2.00 | 9 per month | 0.91 | 0.30 | 4.27 | (2.24) | 15.85 | |
| BZUN | Baozun Inc | 1.00 | 8 per month | 4.21 | 0.1 | 8.63 | (7.17) | 50.89 | |
| FTCH | Farfetch Ltd Class | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
PDD Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine PDD price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for PDD using various technical indicators. When you analyze PDD charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About PDD Holdings Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of PDD Holdings stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as PDD Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of PDD Holdings based on analysis of PDD Holdings hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to PDD Holdings's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to PDD Holdings's related companies. | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 1.03E-4 | 9.2E-5 | Price To Sales Ratio | 7.0 | 6.65 |
Story Coverage note for PDD Holdings
The number of cover stories for PDD Holdings depends on current market conditions and PDD Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that PDD Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about PDD Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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PDD Holdings Short Properties
PDD Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when PDD Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of PDD Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential PDD Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PDD Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.8 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 217.2 B |
Complementary Tools for PDD Stock analysis
When running PDD Holdings' price analysis, check to measure PDD Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PDD Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of PDD Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PDD Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PDD Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PDD Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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