Fidelis Insurance Holdings Stock Price Prediction
| FIHL Stock | 20.66 0.08 0.39% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
68
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.188 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.8 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.993 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.7006 | Wall Street Target Price 22.3333 |
Using Fidelis Insurance hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fidelis Insurance Holdings from the perspective of Fidelis Insurance response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Fidelis Insurance to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Fidelis because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Fidelis Insurance after-hype prediction price | USD 20.6 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Fidelis |
Fidelis Insurance After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Fidelis Insurance at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fidelis Insurance or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Fidelis Insurance, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Fidelis Insurance Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Fidelis Insurance's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fidelis Insurance's historical news coverage. Fidelis Insurance's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.45 and 22.75, respectively. We have considered Fidelis Insurance's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Fidelis Insurance is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fidelis Insurance is based on 3 months time horizon.
Fidelis Insurance Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Fidelis Insurance is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fidelis Insurance backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fidelis Insurance, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 2.13 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 6 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
20.66 | 20.60 | 0.29 |
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Fidelis Insurance Hype Timeline
Fidelis Insurance is currently traded for 20.66. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Fidelis is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 20.6. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.29%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Fidelis Insurance is about 590.03%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.73. About 22.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.88. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Fidelis Insurance last dividend was issued on the 29th of November 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Fidelis Insurance Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Fidelis Insurance Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Fidelis Insurance's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fidelis Insurance's future price movements. Getting to know how Fidelis Insurance's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fidelis Insurance may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ESGR | Enstar Group Limited | 0.24 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.35) | 0.63 | (0.82) | 1.81 | |
| FIHL | Fidelis Insurance Holdings | (0.27) | 6 per month | 1.90 | 0.04 | 3.45 | (2.25) | 12.41 | |
| AEG | Aegon NV ADR | (0.09) | 9 per month | 1.24 | (0.02) | 2.61 | (2.28) | 6.29 | |
| AIG | American International Group | (0.09) | 10 per month | 1.20 | (0.04) | 1.77 | (1.33) | 8.30 | |
| EQH | Axa Equitable Holdings | 2.88 | 9 per month | 1.12 | 0.05 | 2.91 | (2.31) | 17.41 | |
| FGF | Fundamental Global | 1.07 | 8 per month | 6.87 | 0.08 | 15.93 | (10.34) | 55.76 | |
| SLF | Sun Life Financial | 0.59 | 10 per month | 0.36 | 0.09 | 1.26 | (0.93) | 5.09 | |
| WDH | Waterdrop ADR | 0.04 | 3 per month | 2.45 | 0.0002 | 5.77 | (3.70) | 15.06 | |
| GSHD | Goosehead Insurance | (0.39) | 9 per month | 0.83 | 0.24 | 5.06 | (2.22) | 14.35 | |
| IGIC | International General Insurance | (0.37) | 8 per month | 1.17 | 0.22 | 5.40 | (2.47) | 10.23 |
Fidelis Insurance Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Fidelis price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fidelis using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fidelis charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Fidelis Insurance Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Fidelis Insurance stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Fidelis Insurance Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Fidelis Insurance based on analysis of Fidelis Insurance hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Fidelis Insurance's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Fidelis Insurance's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.001398 | 1.99E-4 | 2.29E-4 | 2.18E-4 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.26 | 1.67 | 0.4 | 0.38 |
Story Coverage note for Fidelis Insurance
The number of cover stories for Fidelis Insurance depends on current market conditions and Fidelis Insurance's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fidelis Insurance is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fidelis Insurance's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Fidelis Insurance Short Properties
Fidelis Insurance's future price predictability will typically decrease when Fidelis Insurance's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Fidelis Insurance Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Fidelis Insurance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fidelis Insurance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 114.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4 B |
Check out Fidelis Insurance Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fidelis Insurance. If investors know Fidelis will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fidelis Insurance listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.188 | Earnings Share 3.83 | Revenue Per Share 19.694 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.276 | Return On Assets 0.0261 |
The market value of Fidelis Insurance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fidelis that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fidelis Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fidelis Insurance's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fidelis Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fidelis Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fidelis Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fidelis Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fidelis Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.