China Resources Cement Stock Price Prediction
| CARCY Stock | USD 7.04 0.60 9.32% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
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Oversold | Overbought |
Using China Resources hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of China Resources Cement from the perspective of China Resources response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in China Resources to buy its pink sheet at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying China because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell pink sheets at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
China Resources after-hype prediction price | USD 7.04 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of China Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
China Resources After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of China Resources at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in China Resources or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of China Resources, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
China Resources Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting China Resources' pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on China Resources' historical news coverage. China Resources' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.62 and 12.46, respectively. We have considered China Resources' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
China Resources is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of China Resources Cement is based on 3 months time horizon.
China Resources Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as China Resources is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading China Resources backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with China Resources, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 5.42 | 0.34 | 0.12 | 20 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 20 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
7.04 | 7.04 | 0.00 |
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China Resources Hype Timeline
China Resources Cement is currently traded for 7.04. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.34, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.12. China is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.23%. %. The volatility of related hype on China Resources is about 1079.2%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.92. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.5. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. China Resources Cement last dividend was issued on the 7th of September 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 20 days. Check out China Resources Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.China Resources Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to China Resources' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict China Resources' future price movements. Getting to know how China Resources' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how China Resources may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CRH | CRH PLC ADR | 1.30 | 8 per month | 0.92 | 0.08 | 2.18 | (1.58) | 5.97 | |
| HCMLF | Holcim | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.66 | 0.02 | 1.60 | (2.06) | 9.04 | |
| HCMLY | Lafargeholcim Ltd ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.98 | (0.01) | 1.77 | (1.71) | 6.48 | |
| VMC | Vulcan Materials | (0.76) | 9 per month | 0.81 | 0.11 | 2.27 | (1.75) | 8.48 | |
| MLM | Martin Marietta Materials | (5.39) | 9 per month | 1.12 | 0.03 | 1.94 | (2.07) | 8.83 | |
| UCLQF | UltraTech Cement Limited | (1.50) | 7 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| AHCHY | Anhui Conch Cement | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.19 | 0.08 | 6.13 | (5.54) | 22.18 | |
| AHCHF | Anhui Conch Cement | 1.95 | 11 per month | 4.72 | 0.08 | 13.10 | (9.83) | 31.60 | |
| JHX | James Hardie Industries | (0.12) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.32 | (2.75) | 16.43 |
China Resources Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine China price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for China using various technical indicators. When you analyze China charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About China Resources Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of China Resources stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as China Resources Cement, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of China Resources based on analysis of China Resources hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to China Resources's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to China Resources's related companies.
Story Coverage note for China Resources
The number of cover stories for China Resources depends on current market conditions and China Resources' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that China Resources is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about China Resources' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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China Resources Short Properties
China Resources' future price predictability will typically decrease when China Resources' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of China Resources Cement often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential China Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. China Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7 B |
Additional Tools for China Pink Sheet Analysis
When running China Resources' price analysis, check to measure China Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Resources is operating at the current time. Most of China Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.