Axogen Inc Stock Price Prediction
| AXGN Stock | USD 20.11 2.10 11.66% |
Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.01 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.316 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.494 | Wall Street Target Price 22.6667 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.179 |
Using Axogen hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Axogen Inc from the perspective of Axogen response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Axogen using Axogen's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Axogen using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Axogen's stock price.
Axogen Implied Volatility | 1.15 |
Axogen's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Axogen Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Axogen's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Axogen stock will not fluctuate a lot when Axogen's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Axogen to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Axogen because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Axogen after-hype prediction price | USD 20.11 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Axogen contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Axogen Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0719% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With Axogen trading at USD 20.11, that is roughly USD 0.0145 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Axogen's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Axogen Inc options at the current volatility level of 1.15%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Axogen |
Axogen After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Axogen at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Axogen or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Axogen, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Axogen Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Axogen's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Axogen's historical news coverage. Axogen's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.12 and 24.10, respectively. We have considered Axogen's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Axogen is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Axogen Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Axogen Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Axogen is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Axogen backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Axogen, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.71 | 4.02 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 12 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
20.11 | 20.11 | 0.00 |
|
Axogen Hype Timeline
Axogen Inc is presently traded for 20.11. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Axogen is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.71%. %. The volatility of related hype on Axogen is about 11596.15%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.13. About 82.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.23. Axogen Inc last dividend was issued on the 27th of January 2010. The entity had 105:100 split on the 11th of July 1994. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Axogen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Axogen Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Axogen's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Axogen's future price movements. Getting to know how Axogen's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Axogen may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Axogen Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Axogen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Axogen using various technical indicators. When you analyze Axogen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Axogen Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Axogen stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Axogen Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Axogen based on analysis of Axogen hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Axogen's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Axogen's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Current Ratio | 4.13 | 2.89 | 2.6 | Intangibles To Total Assets | 0.0187 | 0.023 | 0.0265 |
Story Coverage note for Axogen
The number of cover stories for Axogen depends on current market conditions and Axogen's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Axogen is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Axogen's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Axogen Short Properties
Axogen's future price predictability will typically decrease when Axogen's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Axogen Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Axogen's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Axogen's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 42.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 31 M |
Check out Axogen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Is Health Care Equipment & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Axogen. If investors know Axogen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Axogen listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.23) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.179 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Axogen Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Axogen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Axogen's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Axogen's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Axogen's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Axogen's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Axogen's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Axogen is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Axogen's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.