Avista Stock Price Prediction

AVA Stock  USD 39.95  0.92  2.36%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of Avista's share price is above 70 at this time. This suggests that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Avista, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 76

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Avista's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Avista, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Avista's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.22)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.97
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.6025
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.726
Wall Street Target Price
39.8
Using Avista hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Avista from the perspective of Avista response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Avista using Avista's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Avista using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Avista's stock price.

Avista Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Avista's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Avista. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Avista stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA
37.3262
Short Percent
0.0522
Short Ratio
5.46
Shares Short Prior Month
2.8 M
50 Day MA
37.4468

Avista Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Avista's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Avista. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Avista can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Avista. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Avista's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Avista.

Avista Implied Volatility

    
  0.31  
Avista's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Avista stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Avista's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Avista stock will not fluctuate a lot when Avista's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Avista to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Avista because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Avista after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 39.91  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Avista Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Avista Stock refer to our How to Trade Avista Stock guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Avista's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
39.0840.5742.06
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
37.3338.8140.30
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
35.8539.4043.73
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.930.981.02
Details

Avista After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Avista at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Avista or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Avista, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Avista Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Avista's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Avista's historical news coverage. Avista's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 38.42 and 41.40, respectively. We have considered Avista's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
39.95
39.91
After-hype Price
41.40
Upside
Avista is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Avista is based on 3 months time horizon.

Avista Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Avista is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Avista backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Avista, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.18 
1.49
  0.04 
  0.04 
9 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
39.95
39.91
0.10 
620.83  
Notes

Avista Hype Timeline

On the 16th of March 2025 Avista is traded for 39.95. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Avista is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 39.91. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.18%. The volatility of related hype on Avista is about 606.79%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 39.99. About 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.21. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Avista has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.73. The entity last dividend was issued on the 26th of February 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 10th of November 1993. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Avista Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Avista Stock refer to our How to Trade Avista Stock guide.

Avista Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Avista's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Avista's future price movements. Getting to know how Avista's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Avista may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ALEAllete Inc 0.01 9 per month 0.18  0.51  0.50 (0.48) 1.28 
BKHBlack Hills 0.30 8 per month 1.32  0.08  1.58 (2.11) 7.57 
MNTKMontauk Renewables(0.35)5 per month 0.00 (0.13) 6.16 (10.21) 27.24 
ELPCompanhia Paranaense de 0.06 5 per month 2.24  0.17  3.42 (4.03) 8.80 
NWENorthWestern(0.91)9 per month 1.45  0.15  2.32 (2.57) 7.16 
OTTROtter Tail 2.95 7 per month 1.49  0.14  2.36 (2.12) 8.55 
AESThe AES(0.44)9 per month 0.00  0.03  4.20 (4.24) 15.11 
BIPBrookfield Infrastructure Partners(0.40)9 per month 0.00 (0.10) 2.19 (3.39) 8.95 
UTLUNITIL 0.99 9 per month 0.00  0.06  2.15 (3.06) 6.36 

Avista Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Avista price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Avista using various technical indicators. When you analyze Avista charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Avista Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Avista stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Avista, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Avista based on analysis of Avista hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Avista's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Avista's related companies.
 2022 2023 2024 2025 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.03990.05160.05190.0477
Price To Sales Ratio1.891.561.490.94

Story Coverage note for Avista

The number of cover stories for Avista depends on current market conditions and Avista's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Avista is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Avista's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Avista Short Properties

Avista's future price predictability will typically decrease when Avista's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Avista often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Avista's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Avista's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding79 M
Cash And Short Term Investments30 M

Complementary Tools for Avista Stock analysis

When running Avista's price analysis, check to measure Avista's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Avista is operating at the current time. Most of Avista's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Avista's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Avista's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Avista to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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