Academy Sports Outdoors Stock Price Prediction
| ASO Stock | USD 48.85 0.84 1.75% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
35
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.03) | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.06 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.51 | Wall Street Target Price 62.4444 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 2.03 |
Using Academy Sports hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Academy Sports Outdoors from the perspective of Academy Sports response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Academy Sports Outdoors Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Academy Sports' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Academy. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Academy can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Academy Sports Outdoors. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Academy Sports' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Academy Sports.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Academy Sports to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Academy because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Academy Sports after-hype prediction price | USD 48.76 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Academy |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Academy Sports' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Academy Sports After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Academy Sports at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Academy Sports or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Academy Sports, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Academy Sports Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Academy Sports' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Academy Sports' historical news coverage. Academy Sports' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 46.53 and 50.99, respectively. We have considered Academy Sports' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Academy Sports is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Academy Sports Outdoors is based on 3 months time horizon.
Academy Sports Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Academy Sports is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Academy Sports backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Academy Sports, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 2.24 | 0.09 | 1.57 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
48.85 | 48.76 | 0.18 |
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Academy Sports Hype Timeline
On the 28th of November Academy Sports Outdoors is traded for 48.85. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 1.57. Academy is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 48.76. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.18%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Academy Sports is about 24.2%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 50.42. About 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.73. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Academy Sports Outdoors has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.52. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.44. The firm last dividend was issued on the 19th of September 2024. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Academy Sports Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Academy Sports Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Academy Sports' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Academy Sports' future price movements. Getting to know how Academy Sports' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Academy Sports may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WSM | Williams Sonoma | 4.44 | 8 per month | 1.73 | 0.08 | 3.41 | (3.07) | 29.00 | |
| AZO | AutoZone | 73.92 | 8 per month | 1.19 | (0.1) | 2.14 | (1.68) | 6.36 | |
| ULTA | Ulta Beauty | (0.22) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.89 | (3.24) | 8.40 | |
| RH | RH | (8.62) | 10 per month | 1.62 | 0.11 | 4.95 | (2.84) | 29.32 | |
| DKS | Dicks Sporting Goods | 1.31 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.97 | (3.16) | 7.73 | |
| AAP | Advance Auto Parts | 2.53 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 5.43 | (4.63) | 15.49 | |
| TSCO | Tractor Supply | 0.06 | 10 per month | 1.55 | (0.05) | 2.16 | (2.25) | 9.44 | |
| ORLY | OReilly Automotive | 9.31 | 9 per month | 0.84 | 0.03 | 1.40 | (1.55) | 7.77 | |
| FIVE | Five Below | 0.56 | 12 per month | 2.92 | 0 | 5.40 | (4.34) | 16.58 |
Academy Sports Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Academy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Academy using various technical indicators. When you analyze Academy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Academy Sports Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Academy Sports stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Academy Sports Outdoors, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Academy Sports based on analysis of Academy Sports hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Academy Sports's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Academy Sports's related companies. | 2010 | 2024 (projected) | null | 0.005599 | 0.13 | null | 0.79 | 0.24 |
Story Coverage note for Academy Sports
The number of cover stories for Academy Sports depends on current market conditions and Academy Sports' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Academy Sports is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Academy Sports' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Academy Sports Short Properties
Academy Sports' future price predictability will typically decrease when Academy Sports' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Academy Sports Outdoors often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Academy Sports' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Academy Sports' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 77.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 347.9 M |
Check out Academy Sports Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Funds Screener module to find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.
Is Other Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Academy Sports. If investors know Academy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Academy Sports listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.03) | Dividend Share 0.42 | Earnings Share 6.44 | Revenue Per Share 82.956 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) |
The market value of Academy Sports Outdoors is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Academy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Academy Sports' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Academy Sports' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Academy Sports' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Academy Sports' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Academy Sports' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Academy Sports is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Academy Sports' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.