Air Lease Stock Price Prediction
| AL Stock | USD 50.71 0.51 1.00% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
73
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.25) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.88 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.2685 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.1682 | Wall Street Target Price 57.5714 |
Using Air Lease hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Air Lease from the perspective of Air Lease response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Air Lease Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Air Lease's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Air. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Air can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Air Lease. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Air Lease's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Air Lease.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Air Lease to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Air because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Air Lease after-hype prediction price | USD 50.92 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Air |
Air Lease After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Air Lease at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Air Lease or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Air Lease, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Air Lease Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Air Lease's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Air Lease's historical news coverage. Air Lease's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 49.23 and 52.61, respectively. We have considered Air Lease's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Air Lease is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Air Lease is based on 3 months time horizon.
Air Lease Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Air Lease is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Air Lease backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Air Lease, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 1.70 | 0.20 | 0.06 | 7 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
50.71 | 50.92 | 0.41 |
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Air Lease Hype Timeline
As of November 28, 2024 Air Lease is listed for 50.71. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.2, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. Air is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 50.92 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 146.55%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.41%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Air Lease is about 503.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 50.77. The company generated the yearly revenue of 2.68 B. Reported Net Income was 614.62 M with gross profit of 1.35 B. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Air Lease Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Air Lease Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Air Lease's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Air Lease's future price movements. Getting to know how Air Lease's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Air Lease may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ALTG | Alta Equipment Group | 0.43 | 7 per month | 3.66 | 0.05 | 6.65 | (5.48) | 25.52 | |
| MGRC | McGrath RentCorp | (2.96) | 8 per month | 1.59 | 0.03 | 2.84 | (3.05) | 11.62 | |
| HRI | Herc Holdings | 7.88 | 10 per month | 1.18 | 0.19 | 5.52 | (2.36) | 20.05 | |
| HEES | HE Equipment Services | 0.46 | 6 per month | 2.05 | 0.09 | 3.45 | (3.22) | 15.53 | |
| GATX | GATX Corporation | (2.12) | 8 per month | 0.93 | 0.07 | 2.79 | (1.44) | 8.69 | |
| PRG | PROG Holdings | (0.14) | 11 per month | 2.30 | (0.02) | 2.85 | (2.60) | 13.25 | |
| CTOS | Custom Truck One | (0.06) | 9 per month | 2.66 | 0.09 | 8.95 | (4.61) | 17.86 | |
| R | Ryder System | (0.45) | 7 per month | 1.45 | 0.09 | 3.32 | (2.64) | 7.72 | |
| TRTN-PB | Triton International Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.20 | (0.41) | 0.40 | (0.36) | 1.28 |
Air Lease Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Air price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Air using various technical indicators. When you analyze Air charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Air Lease Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Air Lease stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Air Lease, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Air Lease based on analysis of Air Lease hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Air Lease's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Air Lease's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0201 | 0.0291 | 0.028 | 0.0294 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.42 | 1.85 | 1.73 | 3.26 |
Story Coverage note for Air Lease
The number of cover stories for Air Lease depends on current market conditions and Air Lease's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Air Lease is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Air Lease's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Air Lease Short Properties
Air Lease's future price predictability will typically decrease when Air Lease's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Air Lease often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Air Lease's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Air Lease's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 111.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 460.9 M |
Check out Air Lease Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Air Stock please use our How to buy in Air Stock guide.You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Is Trading Companies & Distributors space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Air Lease. If investors know Air will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Air Lease listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.25) | Dividend Share 0.84 | Earnings Share 4.39 | Revenue Per Share 24.608 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.047 |
The market value of Air Lease is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Air that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Air Lease's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Air Lease's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Air Lease's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Air Lease's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Air Lease's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Air Lease is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Air Lease's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.