Aar Corp Stock Price Prediction
| AIR Stock | USD 69.02 0.17 0.25% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
64
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.62) | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.31 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.14 | Wall Street Target Price 81 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.82 |
Using AAR Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AAR Corp from the perspective of AAR Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
AAR Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to AAR Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in AAR. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AAR can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around AAR Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of AAR Corp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about AAR Corp.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in AAR Corp to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying AAR because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
AAR Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 68.93 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
AAR |
AAR Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AAR Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AAR Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AAR Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AAR Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AAR Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AAR Corp's historical news coverage. AAR Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 66.67 and 71.19, respectively. We have considered AAR Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AAR Corp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AAR Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
AAR Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AAR Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AAR Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AAR Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 2.27 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
69.02 | 68.93 | 0.13 |
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AAR Corp Hype Timeline
On the 28th of November AAR Corp is traded for 69.02. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.16. AAR is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 68.93. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.13%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on AAR Corp is about 141.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 68.86. About 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of AAR Corp was presently reported as 34.31. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.41. AAR Corp last dividend was issued on the 27th of March 2020. The entity had 3:2 split on the 24th of February 1998. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out AAR Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.AAR Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AAR Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AAR Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how AAR Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AAR Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CW | Curtiss Wright | (23.14) | 9 per month | 1.68 | 0.09 | 2.96 | (2.48) | 11.02 | |
| HXL | Hexcel | (1.53) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.35 | (2.66) | 6.19 | |
| KAMN | Kaman | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.21 | 0 | 5.37 | (3.75) | 14.48 | |
| MOG-A | Moog Inc | 5.55 | 4 per month | 1.45 | 0.06 | 2.69 | (2.44) | 14.78 | |
| DCO | Ducommun Incorporated | (1.38) | 9 per month | 1.53 | (0.04) | 2.90 | (2.30) | 8.32 | |
| MRCY | Mercury Systems | (1.01) | 10 per month | 1.69 | 0.02 | 2.83 | (3.14) | 29.10 | |
| WWD | Woodward | 0.52 | 6 per month | 1.32 | 0.06 | 2.58 | (1.93) | 6.52 | |
| PKE | Park Electrochemical | 0.62 | 4 per month | 1.08 | 0.02 | 2.61 | (2.02) | 12.34 | |
| NPK | National Presto Industries | (0.21) | 7 per month | 1.37 | (0.03) | 2.43 | (2.44) | 8.03 | |
| ISSC | Innovative Solutions and | 0.04 | 7 per month | 1.52 | 0.02 | 3.28 | (3.31) | 9.31 | |
| VSEC | VSE Corporation | 2.91 | 9 per month | 2.05 | 0.09 | 2.95 | (3.45) | 21.00 |
AAR Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AAR price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AAR using various technical indicators. When you analyze AAR charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About AAR Corp Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of AAR Corp stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as AAR Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of AAR Corp based on analysis of AAR Corp hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to AAR Corp's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to AAR Corp's related companies. | 2020 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 6.7E-5 | 7.7E-5 | 7.3E-5 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.9 | 1.07 | 0.74 |
Story Coverage note for AAR Corp
The number of cover stories for AAR Corp depends on current market conditions and AAR Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AAR Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AAR Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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AAR Corp Short Properties
AAR Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when AAR Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AAR Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AAR Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AAR Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 35.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 85.8 M |
Additional Tools for AAR Stock Analysis
When running AAR Corp's price analysis, check to measure AAR Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AAR Corp is operating at the current time. Most of AAR Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AAR Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AAR Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AAR Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.