Aercap Holdings Nv Stock Price Prediction
| AER Stock | USD 104.60 0.25 0.24% |
Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.34) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.9733 | EPS Estimate Current Year 11.6378 | EPS Estimate Next Year 12.9009 | Wall Street Target Price 121 |
Using AerCap Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AerCap Holdings NV from the perspective of AerCap Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards AerCap Holdings using AerCap Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards AerCap using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of AerCap Holdings' stock price.
AerCap Holdings Short Interest
An investor who is long AerCap Holdings may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about AerCap Holdings and may potentially protect profits, hedge AerCap Holdings with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 95.4129 | Short Percent 0.0091 | Short Ratio 1.09 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.6 M | 50 Day MA 98.2764 |
AerCap Holdings NV Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to AerCap Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in AerCap. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AerCap can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around AerCap Holdings NV. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of AerCap Holdings' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about AerCap Holdings.
AerCap Holdings Implied Volatility | 0.55 |
AerCap Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of AerCap Holdings NV stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if AerCap Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that AerCap Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when AerCap Holdings' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in AerCap Holdings to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying AerCap because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
AerCap Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 104.35 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current AerCap contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that AerCap Holdings NV will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0344% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With AerCap Holdings trading at USD 104.6, that is roughly USD 0.036 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating AerCap Holdings' daily price movement you should consider acquiring AerCap Holdings NV options at the current volatility level of 0.55%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
AerCap |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AerCap Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AerCap Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AerCap Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AerCap Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AerCap Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AerCap Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AerCap Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AerCap Holdings' historical news coverage. AerCap Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 102.96 and 105.74, respectively. We have considered AerCap Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AerCap Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AerCap Holdings NV is based on 3 months time horizon.
AerCap Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AerCap Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AerCap Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AerCap Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 1.39 | 0.51 | 0.02 | 10 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
104.60 | 104.35 | 0.00 |
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AerCap Holdings Hype Timeline
On the 20th of March AerCap Holdings NV is traded for 104.60. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.51, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. AerCap is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 49.29%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.18%. %. The volatility of related hype on AerCap Holdings is about 1025.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 104.58. About 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.12. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. AerCap Holdings NV has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.91. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 10.93. The firm last dividend was issued on the 12th of March 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out AerCap Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.AerCap Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AerCap Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AerCap Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how AerCap Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AerCap Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| R | Ryder System | 0.23 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.03 | (3.31) | 8.98 | |
| AAN | The Aarons | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ALTG | Alta Equipment Group | 0.33 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 6.91 | (6.29) | 15.90 | |
| TRTN | Triton International Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| PRG | PROG Holdings | (0.32) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.12 | (5.06) | 31.87 | |
| GATX | GATX Corporation | 0.93 | 12 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 2.11 | (1.90) | 7.23 | |
| MGRC | McGrath RentCorp | (2.56) | 6 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 2.75 | (2.53) | 7.16 | |
| CTOS | Custom Truck One | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 5.46 | (5.54) | 23.60 | |
| HEES | HE Equipment Services | 0.16 | 9 per month | 0.85 | 0.10 | 1.53 | (3.34) | 107.70 |
AerCap Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AerCap price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AerCap using various technical indicators. When you analyze AerCap charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About AerCap Holdings Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of AerCap Holdings stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as AerCap Holdings NV, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of AerCap Holdings based on analysis of AerCap Holdings hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to AerCap Holdings's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to AerCap Holdings's related companies. | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.006935 | 0.006165 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.27 | 1.27 |
Story Coverage note for AerCap Holdings
The number of cover stories for AerCap Holdings depends on current market conditions and AerCap Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AerCap Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AerCap Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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AerCap Holdings Short Properties
AerCap Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when AerCap Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AerCap Holdings NV often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AerCap Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AerCap Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 194.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 B |
Additional Tools for AerCap Stock Analysis
When running AerCap Holdings' price analysis, check to measure AerCap Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AerCap Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of AerCap Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AerCap Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AerCap Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AerCap Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.