Vanguard Long Term Tax Exempt Fund Market Value
| VWLUX Fund | USD 10.74 0.01 0.09% |
| Symbol | Vanguard |
Vanguard Long-term 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Vanguard Long-term's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Vanguard Long-term.
| 12/15/2024 |
| 03/15/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Vanguard Long-term on December 15, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Vanguard Long Term Tax Exempt or generate 0.0% return on investment in Vanguard Long-term over 90 days. Vanguard Long-term is related to or competes with Vanguard Intermediate-ter, Vanguard Limited-term, Vanguard High-yield, Vanguard Short-term, and Vanguard Long-term. The fund has no limitations on the maturity of individual securities but is expected to maintain a dollar-weighted avera... More
Vanguard Long-term Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Vanguard Long-term's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Vanguard Long Term Tax Exempt upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | 0.2417 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.21 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.55) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.3766 |
Vanguard Long-term Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Vanguard Long-term's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Vanguard Long-term's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Vanguard Long-term historical prices to predict the future Vanguard Long-term's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.13) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.08) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard Long-term's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vanguard Long Term Backtested Returns
Vanguard Long Term owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0547, which indicates the fund had a -0.0547 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Vanguard Long Term Tax Exempt exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Vanguard Long-term's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.13), variance of 0.0744, and Coefficient Of Variation of (823.87) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.0398, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Vanguard Long-term's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Vanguard Long-term is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.61 |
Very good reverse predictability
Vanguard Long Term Tax Exempt has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Vanguard Long-term time series from 15th of December 2024 to 29th of January 2025 and 29th of January 2025 to 15th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Vanguard Long Term price movement. The serial correlation of -0.61 indicates that roughly 61.0% of current Vanguard Long-term price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.61 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.1 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Vanguard Long Term lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Vanguard Long-term mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Vanguard Long-term's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Vanguard Long-term returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Vanguard Long-term has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Vanguard Long-term regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Vanguard Long-term mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Vanguard Long-term mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Vanguard Long-term mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Vanguard Long-term Lagged Returns
When evaluating Vanguard Long-term's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Vanguard Long-term mutual fund have on its future price. Vanguard Long-term autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Vanguard Long-term autocorrelation shows the relationship between Vanguard Long-term mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Vanguard Long Term Tax Exempt.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Vanguard Long-term financial ratios help investors to determine whether Vanguard Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Vanguard with respect to the benefits of owning Vanguard Long-term security.
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