Unicharm Corp (Germany) Market Value
| UN4 Stock | 7.93 15.87 66.68% |
| Symbol | Unicharm |
Unicharm Corp 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Unicharm Corp's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Unicharm Corp.
| 01/05/2023 |
| 12/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Unicharm Corp on January 5, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Unicharm Corp or generate 0.0% return on investment in Unicharm Corp over 720 days.
Unicharm Corp Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Unicharm Corp's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Unicharm Corp upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.18) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 77.79 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.15) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.48 |
Unicharm Corp Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Unicharm Corp's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Unicharm Corp's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Unicharm Corp historical prices to predict the future Unicharm Corp's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.13) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (1.49) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (1.87) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 25.25 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Unicharm Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Unicharm Corp Backtested Returns
Unicharm Corp owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.17, which indicates the firm had a -0.17% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Unicharm Corp exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Unicharm Corp's Coefficient Of Variation of (582.04), variance of 74.43, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.13) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of -0.0591, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Unicharm Corp are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Unicharm Corp is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Unicharm Corp has a negative expected return of -1.45%. Please make sure to validate Unicharm Corp's skewness, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and rate of daily change , to decide if Unicharm Corp performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.14 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
Unicharm Corp has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Unicharm Corp time series from 5th of January 2023 to 31st of December 2023 and 31st of December 2023 to 25th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Unicharm Corp price movement. The serial correlation of -0.14 indicates that less than 14.0% of current Unicharm Corp price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.14 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.19 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 14.35 |
Unicharm Corp lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Unicharm Corp stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Unicharm Corp's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Unicharm Corp returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Unicharm Corp has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Unicharm Corp regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Unicharm Corp stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Unicharm Corp stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Unicharm Corp stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Unicharm Corp Lagged Returns
When evaluating Unicharm Corp's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Unicharm Corp stock have on its future price. Unicharm Corp autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Unicharm Corp autocorrelation shows the relationship between Unicharm Corp stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Unicharm Corp.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for Unicharm Stock Analysis
When running Unicharm Corp's price analysis, check to measure Unicharm Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Unicharm Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Unicharm Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Unicharm Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Unicharm Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Unicharm Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.