Rail Vikas (India) Market Value
| RVNL Stock | 433.25 15.20 3.39% |
| Symbol | Rail |
Rail Vikas 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Rail Vikas' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Rail Vikas.
| 01/02/2023 |
| 12/22/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Rail Vikas on January 2, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Rail Vikas Nigam or generate 0.0% return on investment in Rail Vikas over 720 days. Rail Vikas is related to or competes with MRF, JSW Holdings, Maharashtra Scooters, Nalwa Sons, Kalyani Investment, Pilani Investment, and Vardhman Holdings. Rail Vikas is entity of India. It is traded as Stock on NSE exchange. More
Rail Vikas Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Rail Vikas' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Rail Vikas Nigam upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.1) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 15.13 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.02) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.84 |
Rail Vikas Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Rail Vikas' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Rail Vikas' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Rail Vikas historical prices to predict the future Rail Vikas' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.06) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.28) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.34) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.39) |
Rail Vikas Nigam Backtested Returns
Rail Vikas Nigam maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of -0.1, which implies the firm had a -0.1% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Rail Vikas Nigam exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check Rail Vikas' Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.06), coefficient of variation of (1,159), and Variance of 8.58 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The company holds a Beta of 0.67, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Rail Vikas' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Rail Vikas is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Rail Vikas Nigam has a negative expected return of -0.29%. Please make sure to check Rail Vikas' total risk alpha, maximum drawdown, potential upside, as well as the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to decide if Rail Vikas Nigam performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.72 |
Good predictability
Rail Vikas Nigam has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Rail Vikas time series from 2nd of January 2023 to 28th of December 2023 and 28th of December 2023 to 22nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Rail Vikas Nigam price movement. The serial correlation of 0.72 indicates that around 72.0% of current Rail Vikas price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.72 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.68 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 16.6 K |
Rail Vikas Nigam lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Rail Vikas stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Rail Vikas' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Rail Vikas returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Rail Vikas has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Rail Vikas regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Rail Vikas stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Rail Vikas stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Rail Vikas stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Rail Vikas Lagged Returns
When evaluating Rail Vikas' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Rail Vikas stock have on its future price. Rail Vikas autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Rail Vikas autocorrelation shows the relationship between Rail Vikas stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Rail Vikas Nigam.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Rail Stock Analysis
When running Rail Vikas' price analysis, check to measure Rail Vikas' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Rail Vikas is operating at the current time. Most of Rail Vikas' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Rail Vikas' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Rail Vikas' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Rail Vikas to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.