Northwest Natural Gas Stock Market Value
| NWN Stock | USD 41.83 0.72 1.75% |
| Symbol | Northwest |
Northwest Natural Gas Price To Book Ratio
Is Gas Utilities space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northwest Natural. If investors know Northwest will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Northwest Natural listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | Dividend Share 1.953 | Earnings Share 2.03 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.043 |
The market value of Northwest Natural Gas is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Northwest that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Northwest Natural's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Northwest Natural's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Northwest Natural's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Northwest Natural's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Northwest Natural's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Northwest Natural is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northwest Natural's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Northwest Natural 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Northwest Natural's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Northwest Natural.
| 12/16/2024 |
| 03/16/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Northwest Natural on December 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Northwest Natural Gas or generate 0.0% return on investment in Northwest Natural over 90 days. Northwest Natural is related to or competes with Chesapeake Utilities, One Gas, NiSource, NewJersey Resources, UGI, Spire, and Atmos Energy. Northwest Natural Holding Company, through its subsidiary, Northwest Natural Gas Company, provides regulated natural gas... More
Northwest Natural Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Northwest Natural's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Northwest Natural Gas upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.37 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0939 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.3 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.20) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.01 |
Northwest Natural Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Northwest Natural's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Northwest Natural's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Northwest Natural historical prices to predict the future Northwest Natural's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0196 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0527 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1795 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0901 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0417 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Northwest Natural's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Northwest Natural Gas Backtested Returns
As of now, Northwest Stock is very steady. Northwest Natural Gas has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0372, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0372 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Northwest Natural, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify Northwest Natural's Mean Deviation of 0.9515, downside deviation of 1.37, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0196 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0503%. Northwest Natural has a performance score of 2 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.35, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Northwest Natural's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Northwest Natural is expected to be smaller as well. Northwest Natural Gas right now secures a risk of 1.35%. Please verify Northwest Natural Gas downside variance, as well as the relationship between the daily balance of power and period momentum indicator , to decide if Northwest Natural Gas will be following its current price movements.
Auto-correlation | -0.02 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Northwest Natural Gas has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Northwest Natural time series from 16th of December 2024 to 30th of January 2025 and 30th of January 2025 to 16th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Northwest Natural Gas price movement. The serial correlation of -0.02 indicates that only 2.0% of current Northwest Natural price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.02 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.08 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.48 |
Northwest Natural Gas lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Northwest Natural stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Northwest Natural's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Northwest Natural returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Northwest Natural has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Northwest Natural regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Northwest Natural stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Northwest Natural stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Northwest Natural stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Northwest Natural Lagged Returns
When evaluating Northwest Natural's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Northwest Natural stock have on its future price. Northwest Natural autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Northwest Natural autocorrelation shows the relationship between Northwest Natural stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Northwest Natural Gas.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Northwest Natural
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Northwest Natural position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Northwest Natural will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Northwest Stock
| 0.73 | NI | NiSource | PairCorr |
| 0.82 | SR | Spire Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.82 | ATO | Atmos Energy | PairCorr |
| 0.92 | CPK | Chesapeake Utilities | PairCorr |
Moving against Northwest Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Northwest Natural could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Northwest Natural when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Northwest Natural - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Northwest Natural Gas to buy it.
The correlation of Northwest Natural is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Northwest Natural moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Northwest Natural Gas moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Northwest Natural can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Northwest Natural Correlation, Northwest Natural Volatility and Northwest Natural Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Northwest Natural. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Northwest Natural technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.