Nations Trust (Sri Lanka) Market Value
| NTBN0000 | LKR 157.25 3.25 2.02% |
| Symbol | Nations |
Please note, there is a significant difference between Nations Trust's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Nations Trust is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nations Trust's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Nations Trust 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Nations Trust's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Nations Trust.
| 11/11/2024 |
| 12/11/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Nations Trust on November 11, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Nations Trust Bank or generate 0.0% return on investment in Nations Trust over 30 days. More
Nations Trust Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Nations Trust's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Nations Trust Bank upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.3028 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.9 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.48) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.96 |
Nations Trust Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Nations Trust's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Nations Trust's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Nations Trust historical prices to predict the future Nations Trust's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.2805 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.6286 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.3447 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.4389 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (2.19) |
Nations Trust Bank Backtested Returns
Nations Trust appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Nations Trust Bank has Sharpe Ratio of 0.43, which conveys that the firm had a 0.43% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Nations Trust's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.68% is justified by implied risk. Please exercise Nations Trust's Downside Deviation of 1.1, risk adjusted performance of 0.2805, and Mean Deviation of 1.27 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Nations Trust holds a performance score of 34. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.27, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Nations Trust are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Nations Trust is likely to outperform the market. Please check Nations Trust's maximum drawdown, potential upside, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to make a quick decision on whether Nations Trust's current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.31 |
Below average predictability
Nations Trust Bank has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Nations Trust time series from 11th of November 2024 to 26th of November 2024 and 26th of November 2024 to 11th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Nations Trust Bank price movement. The serial correlation of 0.31 indicates that nearly 31.0% of current Nations Trust price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.31 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.25 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 15.26 |
Nations Trust Bank lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Nations Trust stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Nations Trust's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Nations Trust returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Nations Trust has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Nations Trust regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Nations Trust stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Nations Trust stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Nations Trust stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Nations Trust Lagged Returns
When evaluating Nations Trust's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Nations Trust stock have on its future price. Nations Trust autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Nations Trust autocorrelation shows the relationship between Nations Trust stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Nations Trust Bank.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Nations Trust financial ratios help investors to determine whether Nations Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Nations with respect to the benefits of owning Nations Trust security.