Novagold Resources Stock Market Value
| NG Stock | CAD 4.82 0.18 3.60% |
| Symbol | NovaGold |
NovaGold Resources Price To Book Ratio
NovaGold Resources 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to NovaGold Resources' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of NovaGold Resources.
| 12/16/2024 |
| 03/16/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in NovaGold Resources on December 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding NovaGold Resources or generate 0.0% return on investment in NovaGold Resources over 90 days. NovaGold Resources is related to or competes with Centerra Gold, Alamos Gold, MAG Silver, Seabridge Gold, and Eldorado Gold. NovaGold Resources Inc. primarily explores for and develops gold mineral properties in the United States More
NovaGold Resources Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure NovaGold Resources' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess NovaGold Resources upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.78 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0389 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 17.06 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.29) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.01 |
NovaGold Resources Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for NovaGold Resources' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as NovaGold Resources' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use NovaGold Resources historical prices to predict the future NovaGold Resources' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0144 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1015 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.4195 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0331 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0209 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NovaGold Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NovaGold Resources Backtested Returns
As of now, NovaGold Stock is slightly risky. NovaGold Resources has Sharpe Ratio of close to zero, which conveys that the firm had a close to zero % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for NovaGold Resources, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify NovaGold Resources' Mean Deviation of 2.38, risk adjusted performance of 0.0144, and Downside Deviation of 3.78 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0227%. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.78, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, NovaGold Resources' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding NovaGold Resources is expected to be smaller as well. NovaGold Resources right now secures a risk of 2.93%. Please verify NovaGold Resources downside variance, as well as the relationship between the accumulation distribution and market facilitation index , to decide if NovaGold Resources will be following its current price movements.
Auto-correlation | -0.54 |
Good reverse predictability
NovaGold Resources has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between NovaGold Resources time series from 16th of December 2024 to 30th of January 2025 and 30th of January 2025 to 16th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of NovaGold Resources price movement. The serial correlation of -0.54 indicates that about 54.0% of current NovaGold Resources price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.54 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.06 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.04 |
NovaGold Resources lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is NovaGold Resources stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting NovaGold Resources' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of NovaGold Resources returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that NovaGold Resources has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
NovaGold Resources regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If NovaGold Resources stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if NovaGold Resources stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in NovaGold Resources stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
NovaGold Resources Lagged Returns
When evaluating NovaGold Resources' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of NovaGold Resources stock have on its future price. NovaGold Resources autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, NovaGold Resources autocorrelation shows the relationship between NovaGold Resources stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in NovaGold Resources.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with NovaGold Resources
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if NovaGold Resources position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in NovaGold Resources will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with NovaGold Stock
Moving against NovaGold Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to NovaGold Resources could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace NovaGold Resources when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back NovaGold Resources - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling NovaGold Resources to buy it.
The correlation of NovaGold Resources is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as NovaGold Resources moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if NovaGold Resources moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for NovaGold Resources can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out NovaGold Resources Correlation, NovaGold Resources Volatility and NovaGold Resources Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on NovaGold Resources. To learn how to invest in NovaGold Stock, please use our How to Invest in NovaGold Resources guide.You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.
NovaGold Resources technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.