National Development (Sri Lanka) Market Value
| NDBN0000 | LKR 108.50 3.96 3.52% |
| Symbol | National |
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Development's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if National Development is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Development's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
National Development 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to National Development's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of National Development.
| 12/17/2024 |
| 03/17/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in National Development on December 17, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding National Development Bank or generate 0.0% return on investment in National Development over 90 days. More
National Development Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure National Development's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess National Development Bank upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.11 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.2069 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 16.37 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.40) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.53 |
National Development Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for National Development's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as National Development's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use National Development historical prices to predict the future National Development's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.153 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4434 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.7384 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2501 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.86 |
National Development Bank Backtested Returns
National Development appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. National Development Bank has Sharpe Ratio of 0.14, which conveys that the firm had a 0.14 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for National Development, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please exercise National Development's Mean Deviation of 1.74, risk adjusted performance of 0.153, and Downside Deviation of 2.11 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, National Development holds a performance score of 11. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.23, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, National Development's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding National Development is expected to be smaller as well. Please check National Development's sortino ratio, maximum drawdown, potential upside, as well as the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to make a quick decision on whether National Development's current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.69 |
Very good reverse predictability
National Development Bank has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between National Development time series from 17th of December 2024 to 31st of January 2025 and 31st of January 2025 to 17th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of National Development Bank price movement. The serial correlation of -0.69 indicates that around 69.0% of current National Development price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.69 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.74 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 23.99 |
National Development Bank lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is National Development stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting National Development's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of National Development returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that National Development has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
National Development regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If National Development stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if National Development stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in National Development stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
National Development Lagged Returns
When evaluating National Development's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of National Development stock have on its future price. National Development autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, National Development autocorrelation shows the relationship between National Development stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in National Development Bank.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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National Development financial ratios help investors to determine whether National Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in National with respect to the benefits of owning National Development security.