NCL International (Thailand) Market Value
| NCL Stock | THB 0.51 0.03 5.56% |
| Symbol | NCL |
NCL International 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to NCL International's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of NCL International.
| 12/15/2022 |
| 12/04/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in NCL International on December 15, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding NCL International Logistics or generate 0.0% return on investment in NCL International over 720 days. NCL International is related to or competes with Kingsmen CMTI, International Research, Masterkool International, and Internet Thailand. NCL International Logistics Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides inland transportation, inte... More
NCL International Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure NCL International's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess NCL International Logistics upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.68 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0606 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 36.45 | |||
| Value At Risk | (7.46) | |||
| Potential Upside | 10.26 |
NCL International Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for NCL International's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as NCL International's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use NCL International historical prices to predict the future NCL International's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0691 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.55 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.36) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0795 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.65) |
NCL International Backtested Returns
NCL International appears to be out of control, given 3 months investment horizon. NCL International has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0588, which conveys that the company had a 0.0588% return per unit of volatility over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for NCL International, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please exercise NCL International's Downside Deviation of 4.68, market risk adjusted performance of (0.64), and Mean Deviation of 4.24 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, NCL International holds a performance score of 4. The firm secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.73, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning NCL International are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, NCL International is likely to outperform the market. Please check NCL International's standard deviation, total risk alpha, treynor ratio, as well as the relationship between the jensen alpha and sortino ratio , to make a quick decision on whether NCL International's current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.70 |
Good predictability
NCL International Logistics has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between NCL International time series from 15th of December 2022 to 10th of December 2023 and 10th of December 2023 to 4th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of NCL International price movement. The serial correlation of 0.7 indicates that around 70.0% of current NCL International price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.7 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.78 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.04 |
NCL International lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is NCL International stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting NCL International's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of NCL International returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that NCL International has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
NCL International regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If NCL International stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if NCL International stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in NCL International stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
NCL International Lagged Returns
When evaluating NCL International's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of NCL International stock have on its future price. NCL International autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, NCL International autocorrelation shows the relationship between NCL International stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in NCL International Logistics.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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NCL International financial ratios help investors to determine whether NCL Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in NCL with respect to the benefits of owning NCL International security.