National Foods (Pakistan) Market Value
| NATF Stock | 211.61 3.67 1.76% |
| Symbol | National |
National Foods 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to National Foods' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of National Foods.
| 03/09/2024 |
| 03/04/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in National Foods on March 9, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding National Foods or generate 0.0% return on investment in National Foods over 360 days. National Foods is related to or competes with Engro Polymer, EFU General, Standard Chartered, IGI Life, Pakistan Reinsurance, Atlas Insurance, and Meezan Bank. More
National Foods Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure National Foods' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess National Foods upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.44 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.2027 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.28 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.99) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.08 |
National Foods Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for National Foods' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as National Foods' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use National Foods historical prices to predict the future National Foods' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1377 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.325 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.479 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2687 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (216.71) |
National Foods Backtested Returns
National Foods appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. National Foods has Sharpe Ratio of 0.15, which conveys that the firm had a 0.15 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for National Foods, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please exercise National Foods' Mean Deviation of 1.41, downside deviation of 1.44, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1377 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, National Foods holds a performance score of 11. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.0015, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning National Foods are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, National Foods is likely to outperform the market. Please check National Foods' maximum drawdown, potential upside, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to make a quick decision on whether National Foods' current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.64 |
Good predictability
National Foods has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between National Foods time series from 9th of March 2024 to 5th of September 2024 and 5th of September 2024 to 4th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of National Foods price movement. The serial correlation of 0.64 indicates that roughly 64.0% of current National Foods price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.64 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.6 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 75.22 |
National Foods lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is National Foods stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting National Foods' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of National Foods returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that National Foods has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
National Foods regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If National Foods stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if National Foods stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in National Foods stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
National Foods Lagged Returns
When evaluating National Foods' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of National Foods stock have on its future price. National Foods autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, National Foods autocorrelation shows the relationship between National Foods stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in National Foods.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with National Foods
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if National Foods position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in National Foods will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to National Foods could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace National Foods when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back National Foods - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling National Foods to buy it.
The correlation of National Foods is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as National Foods moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if National Foods moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for National Foods can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in National Stock
National Foods financial ratios help investors to determine whether National Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in National with respect to the benefits of owning National Foods security.