Merck (Brazil) Market Value

MRCK34 Stock  BRL 77.28  2.55  3.41%   
Merck's market value is the price at which a share of Merck trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Merck Co investors about its performance. Merck is trading at 77.28 as of the 24th of December 2024, a 3.41 percent increase since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's open price was 74.73.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Merck Co and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Merck over a given investment horizon. Check out Merck Correlation, Merck Volatility and Merck Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Merck.
Symbol

Please note, there is a significant difference between Merck's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Merck is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Merck's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Merck 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Merck's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Merck.
0.00
11/24/2024
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 31 days
12/24/2024
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Merck on November 24, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Merck Co or generate 0.0% return on investment in Merck over 30 days. Merck is related to or competes with AbbVie, Bristol Myers, Gilead Sciences, and Biogen. It operates through four segments Pharmaceutical, Animal Health, Healthcare Services, and Alliances More

Merck Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Merck's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Merck Co upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Merck Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Merck's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Merck's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Merck historical prices to predict the future Merck's volatility.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
74.9677.2879.60
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
61.8464.1685.01
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Merck. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Merck's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Merck's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Merck.

Merck Backtested Returns

At this point, Merck is very steady. Merck has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0032, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0032% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Merck, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify Merck's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.007, downside deviation of 2.18, and Mean Deviation of 1.6 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0074%. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.21, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Merck are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Merck is likely to outperform the market. Merck right now secures a risk of 2.32%. Please verify Merck Co total risk alpha, treynor ratio, value at risk, as well as the relationship between the sortino ratio and maximum drawdown , to decide if Merck Co will be following its current price movements.

Auto-correlation

    
  -0.01  

Very weak reverse predictability

Merck Co has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Merck time series from 24th of November 2024 to 9th of December 2024 and 9th of December 2024 to 24th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Merck price movement. The serial correlation of -0.01 indicates that just 1.0% of current Merck price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient-0.01
Spearman Rank Test-0.07
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance4.24

Merck lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Merck stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Merck's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Merck returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Merck has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

Merck regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Merck stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Merck stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Merck stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

Merck Lagged Returns

When evaluating Merck's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Merck stock have on its future price. Merck autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Merck autocorrelation shows the relationship between Merck stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Merck Co.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

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Other Information on Investing in Merck Stock

Merck financial ratios help investors to determine whether Merck Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Merck with respect to the benefits of owning Merck security.