Marriott Vacations' market value is the price at which a share of Marriott Vacations trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Marriott Vacations Worldwide investors about its performance. Marriott Vacations is trading at 82.50 as of the 8th of January 2025. This is a 1.23% increase since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's lowest day price was 82.5. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Marriott Vacations Worldwide and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Marriott Vacations over a given investment horizon. Check out Marriott Vacations Correlation, Marriott Vacations Volatility and Marriott Vacations Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Marriott Vacations.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Marriott Vacations' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Marriott Vacations is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Marriott Vacations' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Marriott Vacations 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Marriott Vacations' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Marriott Vacations.
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11/09/2024
No Change 0.00
0.0
In 2 months and 2 days
01/08/2025
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If you would invest 0.00 in Marriott Vacations on November 9, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Marriott Vacations Worldwide or generate 0.0% return on investment in Marriott Vacations over 60 days. Marriott Vacations is related to or competes with BANK OF CHINA, Synchrony Financial, REVO INSURANCE, Direct Line, Erste Group, Hanover Insurance, and IMPERIAL TOBACCO. Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation develops, markets, sells, and manages vacation ownership and related products u... More
Marriott Vacations Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Marriott Vacations' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Marriott Vacations Worldwide upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Marriott Vacations' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Marriott Vacations' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Marriott Vacations historical prices to predict the future Marriott Vacations' volatility.
Marriott Vacations appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Marriott Vacations has Sharpe Ratio of 0.16, which conveys that the firm had a 0.16% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Marriott Vacations, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please exercise Marriott Vacations' Mean Deviation of 1.7, risk adjusted performance of 0.1168, and Downside Deviation of 2.0 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Marriott Vacations holds a performance score of 12. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.51, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Marriott Vacations are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Marriott Vacations is likely to outperform the market. Please check Marriott Vacations' potential upside, skewness, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and semi variance , to make a quick decision on whether Marriott Vacations' current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation
-0.58
Good reverse predictability
Marriott Vacations Worldwide has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Marriott Vacations time series from 9th of November 2024 to 9th of December 2024 and 9th of December 2024 to 8th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Marriott Vacations price movement. The serial correlation of -0.58 indicates that roughly 58.0% of current Marriott Vacations price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient
-0.58
Spearman Rank Test
-0.69
Residual Average
0.0
Price Variance
6.67
Marriott Vacations lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Marriott Vacations stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Marriott Vacations' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Marriott Vacations returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Marriott Vacations has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values
Timeline
Marriott Vacations regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Marriott Vacations stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Marriott Vacations stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Marriott Vacations stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices
Timeline
Marriott Vacations Lagged Returns
When evaluating Marriott Vacations' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Marriott Vacations stock have on its future price. Marriott Vacations autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Marriott Vacations autocorrelation shows the relationship between Marriott Vacations stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Marriott Vacations Worldwide.
Marriott Vacations financial ratios help investors to determine whether Marriott Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Marriott with respect to the benefits of owning Marriott Vacations security.