KGHM Polska (Germany) Market Value
| KGHA Stock | EUR 31.52 0.52 1.68% |
| Symbol | KGHM |
KGHM Polska 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to KGHM Polska's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of KGHM Polska.
| 03/18/2023 |
| 03/07/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in KGHM Polska on March 18, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding KGHM Polska Miedz or generate 0.0% return on investment in KGHM Polska over 720 days. KGHM Polska is related to or competes with FARO Technologies, Platinum Investment, Genscript Biotech, and BioNTech. KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. mines, produces, and sells copper, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals in Poland and internat... More
KGHM Polska Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure KGHM Polska's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess KGHM Polska Miedz upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.53 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0803 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.54 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.26) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.99 |
KGHM Polska Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for KGHM Polska's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as KGHM Polska's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use KGHM Polska historical prices to predict the future KGHM Polska's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.046 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1292 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.3956 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0802 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.7146 |
KGHM Polska Miedz Backtested Returns
At this point, KGHM Polska is very steady. KGHM Polska Miedz has Sharpe Ratio of close to zero, which conveys that the firm had a close to zero % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for KGHM Polska, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify KGHM Polska's risk adjusted performance of 0.046, and Mean Deviation of 1.87 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.025%. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.16, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, KGHM Polska's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding KGHM Polska is expected to be smaller as well. KGHM Polska Miedz now secures a risk of 2.57%. Please verify KGHM Polska Miedz downside deviation, information ratio, total risk alpha, as well as the relationship between the coefficient of variation and jensen alpha , to decide if KGHM Polska Miedz will be following its current price movements.
Auto-correlation | -0.23 |
Weak reverse predictability
KGHM Polska Miedz has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between KGHM Polska time series from 18th of March 2023 to 12th of March 2024 and 12th of March 2024 to 7th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of KGHM Polska Miedz price movement. The serial correlation of -0.23 indicates that over 23.0% of current KGHM Polska price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.23 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.03 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 9.83 |
KGHM Polska Miedz lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is KGHM Polska stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting KGHM Polska's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of KGHM Polska returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that KGHM Polska has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
KGHM Polska regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If KGHM Polska stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if KGHM Polska stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in KGHM Polska stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
KGHM Polska Lagged Returns
When evaluating KGHM Polska's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of KGHM Polska stock have on its future price. KGHM Polska autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, KGHM Polska autocorrelation shows the relationship between KGHM Polska stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in KGHM Polska Miedz.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in KGHM Stock
KGHM Polska financial ratios help investors to determine whether KGHM Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in KGHM with respect to the benefits of owning KGHM Polska security.