Jaya Konstruksi (Indonesia) Market Value
| JKON Stock | IDR 81.00 1.00 1.22% |
| Symbol | Jaya |
Jaya Konstruksi 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Jaya Konstruksi's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Jaya Konstruksi.
| 12/26/2024 |
| 01/25/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Jaya Konstruksi on December 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Jaya Konstruksi Manggala or generate 0.0% return on investment in Jaya Konstruksi over 30 days. Jaya Konstruksi is related to or competes with Jaya Real, Perdana Gapura, Jakarta Int, Mnc Land, and Nusa Konstruksi. More
Jaya Konstruksi Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Jaya Konstruksi's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Jaya Konstruksi Manggala upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.18) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.19 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.33) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.47 |
Jaya Konstruksi Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Jaya Konstruksi's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Jaya Konstruksi's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Jaya Konstruksi historical prices to predict the future Jaya Konstruksi's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.12) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.26) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.34) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.90) |
Jaya Konstruksi Manggala Backtested Returns
Jaya Konstruksi Manggala holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.15, which attests that the entity had a -0.15 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Jaya Konstruksi Manggala exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Jaya Konstruksi's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.12), market risk adjusted performance of (1.89), and Standard Deviation of 1.64 to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.13, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Jaya Konstruksi's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Jaya Konstruksi is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Jaya Konstruksi Manggala has a negative expected return of -0.25%. Please make sure to check out Jaya Konstruksi's skewness, accumulation distribution, rate of daily change, as well as the relationship between the kurtosis and daily balance of power , to decide if Jaya Konstruksi Manggala performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.12 |
Insignificant predictability
Jaya Konstruksi Manggala has insignificant predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Jaya Konstruksi time series from 26th of December 2024 to 10th of January 2025 and 10th of January 2025 to 25th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Jaya Konstruksi Manggala price movement. The serial correlation of 0.12 indicates that less than 12.0% of current Jaya Konstruksi price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.12 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.2 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2.89 |
Jaya Konstruksi Manggala lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Jaya Konstruksi stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Jaya Konstruksi's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Jaya Konstruksi returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Jaya Konstruksi has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Jaya Konstruksi regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Jaya Konstruksi stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Jaya Konstruksi stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Jaya Konstruksi stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Jaya Konstruksi Lagged Returns
When evaluating Jaya Konstruksi's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Jaya Konstruksi stock have on its future price. Jaya Konstruksi autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Jaya Konstruksi autocorrelation shows the relationship between Jaya Konstruksi stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Jaya Konstruksi Manggala.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Jaya Konstruksi financial ratios help investors to determine whether Jaya Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Jaya with respect to the benefits of owning Jaya Konstruksi security.