Vaneck Bitcoin Trust Etf Market Value
| HODL Etf | 23.93 1.25 5.51% |
| Symbol | VanEck |
The market value of VanEck Bitcoin Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of VanEck that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of VanEck Bitcoin's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is VanEck Bitcoin's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because VanEck Bitcoin's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect VanEck Bitcoin's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between VanEck Bitcoin's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if VanEck Bitcoin is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, VanEck Bitcoin's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
VanEck Bitcoin 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to VanEck Bitcoin's etf what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of VanEck Bitcoin.
| 12/15/2024 |
| 03/15/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in VanEck Bitcoin on December 15, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding VanEck Bitcoin Trust or generate 0.0% return on investment in VanEck Bitcoin over 90 days. VanEck Bitcoin is related to or competes with ProShares Trust, Hashdex Nasdaq, IShares Ethereum, Volatility Shares, and VanEck Ethereum. VanEck Bitcoin is entity of United States More
VanEck Bitcoin Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure VanEck Bitcoin's etf current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess VanEck Bitcoin Trust upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 15.02 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.63) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.3 |
VanEck Bitcoin Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for VanEck Bitcoin's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as VanEck Bitcoin's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use VanEck Bitcoin historical prices to predict the future VanEck Bitcoin's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.07) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.24) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2343 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.04) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of VanEck Bitcoin's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust Backtested Returns
VanEck Bitcoin Trust owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.11, which indicates the etf had a -0.11 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. VanEck Bitcoin Trust exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate VanEck Bitcoin's Variance of 9.39, coefficient of variation of (1,126), and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.07) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.27, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, VanEck Bitcoin's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding VanEck Bitcoin is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.32 |
Poor reverse predictability
VanEck Bitcoin Trust has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between VanEck Bitcoin time series from 15th of December 2024 to 29th of January 2025 and 29th of January 2025 to 15th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of VanEck Bitcoin Trust price movement. The serial correlation of -0.32 indicates that nearly 32.0% of current VanEck Bitcoin price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.32 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.28 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 3.63 |
VanEck Bitcoin Trust lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is VanEck Bitcoin etf's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting VanEck Bitcoin's etf expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of VanEck Bitcoin returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that VanEck Bitcoin has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the etf is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
VanEck Bitcoin regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If VanEck Bitcoin etf is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if VanEck Bitcoin etf is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in VanEck Bitcoin etf over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
VanEck Bitcoin Lagged Returns
When evaluating VanEck Bitcoin's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of VanEck Bitcoin etf have on its future price. VanEck Bitcoin autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, VanEck Bitcoin autocorrelation shows the relationship between VanEck Bitcoin etf current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in VanEck Bitcoin Trust.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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VanEck Bitcoin technical etf analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, etf market cycles, or different charting patterns.