Granite Construction (Germany) Market Value
| GRG Stock | 66.00 1.00 1.49% |
| Symbol | Granite |
Granite Construction 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Granite Construction's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Granite Construction.
| 12/16/2024 |
| 03/16/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Granite Construction on December 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Granite Construction or generate 0.0% return on investment in Granite Construction over 90 days. Granite Construction is related to or competes with BJs Wholesale, PennyMac Mortgage, Tamburi Investment, Genco Shipping, and PICKN PAY. More
Granite Construction Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Granite Construction's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Granite Construction upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.22) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.49 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.42) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.84 |
Granite Construction Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Granite Construction's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Granite Construction's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Granite Construction historical prices to predict the future Granite Construction's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.23) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.50) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.28) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (6.14) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Granite Construction's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Granite Construction Backtested Returns
Granite Construction holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.25, which attests that the entity had a -0.25 % return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Granite Construction exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Granite Construction's market risk adjusted performance of (6.13), and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.23) to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.083, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Granite Construction's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Granite Construction is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Granite Construction has a negative expected return of -0.47%. Please make sure to check out Granite Construction's value at risk, rate of daily change, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and kurtosis , to decide if Granite Construction performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.19 |
Very weak predictability
Granite Construction has very weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Granite Construction time series from 16th of December 2024 to 30th of January 2025 and 30th of January 2025 to 16th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Granite Construction price movement. The serial correlation of 0.19 indicates that over 19.0% of current Granite Construction price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.19 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.11 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 33.63 |
Granite Construction lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Granite Construction stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Granite Construction's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Granite Construction returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Granite Construction has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Granite Construction regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Granite Construction stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Granite Construction stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Granite Construction stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Granite Construction Lagged Returns
When evaluating Granite Construction's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Granite Construction stock have on its future price. Granite Construction autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Granite Construction autocorrelation shows the relationship between Granite Construction stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Granite Construction.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Additional Tools for Granite Stock Analysis
When running Granite Construction's price analysis, check to measure Granite Construction's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Granite Construction is operating at the current time. Most of Granite Construction's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Granite Construction's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Granite Construction's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Granite Construction to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.