Gabelli Gold Fund Market Value
| GOLDX Fund | USD 21.70 0.08 0.37% |
| Symbol | Gabelli |
Gabelli Gold 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Gabelli Gold's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Gabelli Gold.
| 12/21/2024 |
| 01/20/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Gabelli Gold on December 21, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Gabelli Gold Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Gabelli Gold over 30 days. Gabelli Gold is related to or competes with Global Gold, Gold And, World Precious, First Eagle, and Midas Fund. The fund normally invests at least 80 percent of its net assets in equity securities of foreign and domestic issuers pri... More
Gabelli Gold Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Gabelli Gold's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Gabelli Gold Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.38 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.88) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.95 |
Gabelli Gold Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Gabelli Gold's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Gabelli Gold's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Gabelli Gold historical prices to predict the future Gabelli Gold's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.02) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.10) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.26) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gabelli Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Gabelli Gold Backtested Returns
Gabelli Gold holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.12, which attests that the entity had a -0.12 % return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Gabelli Gold exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Gabelli Gold's risk adjusted performance of (0.02), and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.25) to validate the risk estimate we provide. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.23, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Gabelli Gold's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Gabelli Gold is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.52 |
Modest predictability
Gabelli Gold Fund has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Gabelli Gold time series from 21st of December 2024 to 5th of January 2025 and 5th of January 2025 to 20th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Gabelli Gold price movement. The serial correlation of 0.52 indicates that about 52.0% of current Gabelli Gold price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.52 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.43 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.17 |
Gabelli Gold lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Gabelli Gold mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Gabelli Gold's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Gabelli Gold returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Gabelli Gold has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Gabelli Gold regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Gabelli Gold mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Gabelli Gold mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Gabelli Gold mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Gabelli Gold Lagged Returns
When evaluating Gabelli Gold's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Gabelli Gold mutual fund have on its future price. Gabelli Gold autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Gabelli Gold autocorrelation shows the relationship between Gabelli Gold mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Gabelli Gold Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Gabelli Mutual Fund
Gabelli Gold financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gabelli Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gabelli with respect to the benefits of owning Gabelli Gold security.
| Equity Search Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets | |
| Idea Breakdown Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes | |
| Aroon Oscillator Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios | |
| Portfolio Holdings Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing |