Ghani Gases (Pakistan) Market Value
| GGL Stock | 15.82 0.41 2.66% |
| Symbol | Ghani |
Ghani Gases 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ghani Gases' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ghani Gases.
| 09/29/2024 |
| 12/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ghani Gases on September 29, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ghani Gases or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ghani Gases over 90 days. Ghani Gases is related to or competes with National Bank, United Bank, Bank Alfalah, Allied Bank, Meezan Bank, Askari Bank, and Habib Metropolitan. More
Ghani Gases Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ghani Gases' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ghani Gases upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.25 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.2144 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 18.14 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.68) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.98 |
Ghani Gases Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ghani Gases' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ghani Gases' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ghani Gases historical prices to predict the future Ghani Gases' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1855 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.8407 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.7354 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2523 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 15.97 |
Ghani Gases Backtested Returns
Ghani Gases appears to be somewhat reliable, given 3 months investment horizon. Ghani Gases holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.25, which attests that the entity had a 0.25% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. By evaluating Ghani Gases' technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.98% is justified by implied risk. Please utilize Ghani Gases' market risk adjusted performance of 15.98, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1855 to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Ghani Gases holds a performance score of 20. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.0527, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Ghani Gases' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Ghani Gases is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Ghani Gases' information ratio, treynor ratio, and the relationship between the downside deviation and total risk alpha , to make a quick decision on whether Ghani Gases' current trending patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.59 |
Modest predictability
Ghani Gases has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ghani Gases time series from 29th of September 2024 to 13th of November 2024 and 13th of November 2024 to 28th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ghani Gases price movement. The serial correlation of 0.59 indicates that roughly 59.0% of current Ghani Gases price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.59 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.65 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2.88 |
Ghani Gases lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ghani Gases stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ghani Gases' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ghani Gases returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ghani Gases has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ghani Gases regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ghani Gases stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ghani Gases stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ghani Gases stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ghani Gases Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ghani Gases' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ghani Gases stock have on its future price. Ghani Gases autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ghani Gases autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ghani Gases stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ghani Gases.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Ghani Gases
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Ghani Gases position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Ghani Gases will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Ghani Stock
| 0.92 | FFL | Fauji Foods | PairCorr |
| 0.83 | KSBP | KSB Pumps | PairCorr |
| 0.91 | MARI | Mari Petroleum | PairCorr |
| 0.95 | LOADS | Loads | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Ghani Gases could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Ghani Gases when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Ghani Gases - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Ghani Gases to buy it.
The correlation of Ghani Gases is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Ghani Gases moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Ghani Gases moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Ghani Gases can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Ghani Stock Analysis
When running Ghani Gases' price analysis, check to measure Ghani Gases' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ghani Gases is operating at the current time. Most of Ghani Gases' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ghani Gases' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ghani Gases' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ghani Gases to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.