Federated Government Ultrashort Fund Market Value
| FGUSX Fund | USD 9.81 0.00 0.00% |
| Symbol | Federated |
Federated Government 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Federated Government's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Federated Government.
| 11/05/2024 |
| 01/04/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Federated Government on November 5, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Federated Government Ultrashort or generate 0.0% return on investment in Federated Government over 60 days. Federated Government is related to or competes with Federated Emerging, Federated Mdt, Federated Mdt, Federated Global, Federated Hermes, Federated Strategic, and Federated Strategic. The funds overall strategy is to invest in a portfolio of U.S More
Federated Government Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Federated Government's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Federated Government Ultrashort upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.1082 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.29) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 0.5113 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.10) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.1019 |
Federated Government Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Federated Government's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Federated Government's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Federated Government historical prices to predict the future Federated Government's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.09) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.19) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.07 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Federated Government's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Federated Government Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Federated Mutual Fund to be very steady. Federated Government secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0464, which denotes the fund had a 0.0464% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-four technical indicators for Federated Government Ultrashort, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Federated Government's Downside Deviation of 0.1082, mean deviation of 0.0306, and Coefficient Of Variation of 4493.71 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0033%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0079, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Federated Government are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Federated Government is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | -0.31 |
Poor reverse predictability
Federated Government Ultrashort has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Federated Government time series from 5th of November 2024 to 5th of December 2024 and 5th of December 2024 to 4th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Federated Government price movement. The serial correlation of -0.31 indicates that nearly 31.0% of current Federated Government price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.31 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.75 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Federated Government lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Federated Government mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Federated Government's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Federated Government returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Federated Government has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Federated Government regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Federated Government mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Federated Government mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Federated Government mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Federated Government Lagged Returns
When evaluating Federated Government's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Federated Government mutual fund have on its future price. Federated Government autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Federated Government autocorrelation shows the relationship between Federated Government mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Federated Government Ultrashort.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Other Information on Investing in Federated Mutual Fund
Federated Government financial ratios help investors to determine whether Federated Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Federated with respect to the benefits of owning Federated Government security.
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