XL Axiata (Indonesia) Market Value
| EXCL Stock | IDR 2,260 10.00 0.44% |
| Symbol | EXCL |
XL Axiata 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to XL Axiata's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of XL Axiata.
| 12/16/2024 |
| 03/16/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in XL Axiata on December 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding XL Axiata Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in XL Axiata over 90 days. XL Axiata is related to or competes with Indosat Tbk, Jasa Marga, Indocement Tunggal, Semen Indonesia, and Akr Corporindo. More
XL Axiata Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure XL Axiata's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess XL Axiata Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.893 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1434 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.85 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.89) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.79 |
XL Axiata Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for XL Axiata's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as XL Axiata's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use XL Axiata historical prices to predict the future XL Axiata's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0241 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0201 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1212 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1376 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2434 |
XL Axiata Tbk Backtested Returns
XL Axiata Tbk retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of close to zero, which attests that the company had a close to zero % return per unit of price deviation over the last 3 months. XL Axiata exposes twenty-nine different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out XL Axiata's standard deviation of 0.8568, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.2534 to validate the risk estimate we provide. The firm owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.0569, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, XL Axiata's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding XL Axiata is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, XL Axiata Tbk has a negative expected return of -0.0046%. Please make sure to check out XL Axiata's semi deviation, coefficient of variation, and the relationship between the mean deviation and downside deviation , to decide if XL Axiata Tbk performance from the past will be repeated at some future date.
Auto-correlation | -0.25 |
Weak reverse predictability
XL Axiata Tbk has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between XL Axiata time series from 16th of December 2024 to 30th of January 2025 and 30th of January 2025 to 16th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of XL Axiata Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of -0.25 indicates that over 25.0% of current XL Axiata price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.25 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.1 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 474.35 |
XL Axiata Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is XL Axiata stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting XL Axiata's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of XL Axiata returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that XL Axiata has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
XL Axiata regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If XL Axiata stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if XL Axiata stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in XL Axiata stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
XL Axiata Lagged Returns
When evaluating XL Axiata's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of XL Axiata stock have on its future price. XL Axiata autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, XL Axiata autocorrelation shows the relationship between XL Axiata stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in XL Axiata Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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XL Axiata financial ratios help investors to determine whether EXCL Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in EXCL with respect to the benefits of owning XL Axiata security.