Manufatura (Brazil) Market Value
| ESTR4 Preferred Stock | BRL 3.56 0.07 2.01% |
| Symbol | Manufatura |
Manufatura 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Manufatura's preferred stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Manufatura.
| 04/27/2024 |
| 12/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Manufatura on April 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Manufatura de Brinquedos or generate 0.0% return on investment in Manufatura over 240 days. Manufatura is related to or competes with Companhia, Springs Global, Companhia, Marcopolo, and Inepar SA. Manufatura de Brinquedos Estrela S.A. manufactures and sells toys in Brazil and internationally More
Manufatura Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Manufatura's preferred stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Manufatura de Brinquedos upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.08) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 18.65 | |||
| Value At Risk | (8.58) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.86 |
Manufatura Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Manufatura's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Manufatura's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Manufatura historical prices to predict the future Manufatura's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.05) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.34) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.48) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.4799 |
Manufatura de Brinquedos Backtested Returns
Manufatura de Brinquedos has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0273, which conveys that the firm had a -0.0273% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Manufatura exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Manufatura's Mean Deviation of 2.67, risk adjusted performance of (0.05), and Standard Deviation of 4.53 to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.74, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Manufatura are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Manufatura is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Manufatura de Brinquedos has a negative expected return of -0.11%. Please make sure to verify Manufatura's skewness, day median price, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and daily balance of power , to decide if Manufatura de Brinquedos performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.01 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Manufatura de Brinquedos has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Manufatura time series from 27th of April 2024 to 25th of August 2024 and 25th of August 2024 to 23rd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Manufatura de Brinquedos price movement. The serial correlation of -0.01 indicates that just 1.0% of current Manufatura price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.01 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.34 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.45 |
Manufatura de Brinquedos lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Manufatura preferred stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Manufatura's preferred stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Manufatura returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Manufatura has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the preferred stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Manufatura regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Manufatura preferred stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Manufatura preferred stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Manufatura preferred stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Manufatura Lagged Returns
When evaluating Manufatura's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Manufatura preferred stock have on its future price. Manufatura autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Manufatura autocorrelation shows the relationship between Manufatura preferred stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Manufatura de Brinquedos.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Manufatura Preferred Stock Analysis
When running Manufatura's price analysis, check to measure Manufatura's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Manufatura is operating at the current time. Most of Manufatura's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Manufatura's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Manufatura's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Manufatura to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.