Manufatura (Brazil) Market Value

ESTR4 Preferred Stock  BRL 3.56  0.07  2.01%   
Manufatura's market value is the price at which a share of Manufatura trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Manufatura de Brinquedos investors about its performance. Manufatura is selling for under 3.56 as of the 22nd of December 2024; that is 2.01% up since the beginning of the trading day. The preferred stock's lowest day price was 3.56.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Manufatura de Brinquedos and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Manufatura over a given investment horizon. Check out Manufatura Correlation, Manufatura Volatility and Manufatura Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Manufatura.
Symbol

Please note, there is a significant difference between Manufatura's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Manufatura is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Manufatura's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Manufatura 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Manufatura's preferred stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Manufatura.
0.00
01/02/2023
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 1 year 11 months and 22 days
12/22/2024
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Manufatura on January 2, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Manufatura de Brinquedos or generate 0.0% return on investment in Manufatura over 720 days. Manufatura is related to or competes with Companhia, Springs Global, Companhia, Marcopolo, and Inepar SA. Manufatura de Brinquedos Estrela S.A. manufactures and sells toys in Brazil and internationally More

Manufatura Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Manufatura's preferred stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Manufatura de Brinquedos upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Manufatura Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Manufatura's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Manufatura's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Manufatura historical prices to predict the future Manufatura's volatility.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.183.567.54
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Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.152.976.95
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Manufatura. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Manufatura's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Manufatura's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Manufatura de Brinquedos.

Manufatura de Brinquedos Backtested Returns

Manufatura de Brinquedos has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0211, which conveys that the firm had a -0.0211% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Manufatura exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Manufatura's Standard Deviation of 4.53, risk adjusted performance of (0.05), and Mean Deviation of 2.67 to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.74, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Manufatura are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Manufatura is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Manufatura de Brinquedos has a negative expected return of -0.0838%. Please make sure to verify Manufatura's skewness, day median price, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and daily balance of power , to decide if Manufatura de Brinquedos performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Auto-correlation

    
  -0.06  

Very weak reverse predictability

Manufatura de Brinquedos has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Manufatura time series from 2nd of January 2023 to 28th of December 2023 and 28th of December 2023 to 22nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Manufatura de Brinquedos price movement. The serial correlation of -0.06 indicates that barely 6.0% of current Manufatura price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient-0.06
Spearman Rank Test0.23
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.94

Manufatura de Brinquedos lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Manufatura preferred stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Manufatura's preferred stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Manufatura returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Manufatura has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the preferred stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

Manufatura regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Manufatura preferred stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Manufatura preferred stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Manufatura preferred stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

Manufatura Lagged Returns

When evaluating Manufatura's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Manufatura preferred stock have on its future price. Manufatura autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Manufatura autocorrelation shows the relationship between Manufatura preferred stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Manufatura de Brinquedos.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

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Additional Tools for Manufatura Preferred Stock Analysis

When running Manufatura's price analysis, check to measure Manufatura's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Manufatura is operating at the current time. Most of Manufatura's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Manufatura's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Manufatura's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Manufatura to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.