Duolingo Stock Market Value
| DUOL Stock | USD 283.54 11.05 4.06% |
| Symbol | Duolingo |
Duolingo Price To Book Ratio
Is Diversified Consumer Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Duolingo. If investors know Duolingo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Duolingo listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.171 | Earnings Share 1.87 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.388 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Duolingo is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Duolingo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Duolingo's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Duolingo's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Duolingo's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Duolingo's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Duolingo's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Duolingo is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Duolingo's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Duolingo 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Duolingo's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Duolingo.
| 12/16/2024 |
| 03/16/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Duolingo on December 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Duolingo or generate 0.0% return on investment in Duolingo over 90 days. Duolingo is related to or competes with Bill, Datadog, Asana, Gitlab, Atlassian Corp, Paycom Soft, and ServiceNow. Duolingo, Inc. develops a language-learning website and mobile app in the United States and China More
Duolingo Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Duolingo's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Duolingo upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 25.04 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.37) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.82 |
Duolingo Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Duolingo's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Duolingo's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Duolingo historical prices to predict the future Duolingo's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.06) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.20) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1906 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.29) |
Duolingo Backtested Returns
Duolingo secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0598, which denotes the company had a -0.0598 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Duolingo exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Duolingo's Variance of 16.72, standard deviation of 4.09, and Mean Deviation of 2.81 to check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.12, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Duolingo returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Duolingo is expected to follow. At this point, Duolingo has a negative expected return of -0.25%. Please make sure to confirm Duolingo's potential upside, as well as the relationship between the rate of daily change and period momentum indicator , to decide if Duolingo performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.46 |
Modest reverse predictability
Duolingo has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Duolingo time series from 16th of December 2024 to 30th of January 2025 and 30th of January 2025 to 16th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Duolingo price movement. The serial correlation of -0.46 indicates that about 46.0% of current Duolingo price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.46 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.02 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 3006.84 |
Duolingo lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Duolingo stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Duolingo's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Duolingo returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Duolingo has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Duolingo regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Duolingo stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Duolingo stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Duolingo stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Duolingo Lagged Returns
When evaluating Duolingo's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Duolingo stock have on its future price. Duolingo autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Duolingo autocorrelation shows the relationship between Duolingo stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Duolingo.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Duolingo Correlation, Duolingo Volatility and Duolingo Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Duolingo. For more information on how to buy Duolingo Stock please use our How to buy in Duolingo Stock guide.You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Duolingo technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.