Is Duolingo Stock a Good Investment?

Duolingo Investment Advice

DUOL

To provide specific investment advice or recommendations on Duolingo stock, we recommend investors consider the following general factors when evaluating Duolingo. This will help you to make an informed decision on whether to include Duolingo in one of your diversified portfolios:

Examine Duolingo's financial health by looking at its balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement. Analyze key financial ratios, such as Price-to-Earnings (P/E), Price-to-Sales (P/S), and Price-to-Book (P/B), to determine whether the stock is fairly valued or over/undervalued.
Research Duolingo's leadership team and their track record. Good management can help Duolingo navigate difficult times and make strategic decisions that benefit shareholders and increases its net worth.
Consider the overall health of the Diversified Consumer Services space and any emerging trends that could impact Duolingo's business and its evolving consumer preferences.
Compare Duolingo's performance and market position to its competitors. Analyze how Duolingo is positioned in terms of product offerings, innovation, and market share.
Check if Duolingo pays a dividend and its dividend yield and payout ratio.
Review what financial analysts are saying about Duolingo's stock and their price targets. However, remember that analysts' opinions can vary, and their predictions may not always be accurate.

It's important to note that investing in Duolingo stock, carries risks, and you should carefully consider your investment goals and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Also, remember that it's important for investors to have a long-term perspective and a well-diversified portfolio to manage the impact of stock market volatility on their investments. Below is a detailed guide on how to decide if Duolingo is a good investment.

Sell

Buy

Hold

Macroaxis provides advice on Duolingo to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Duolingo. Our investment recommendation engine determines the company's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Duolingo is not overpriced, please confirm all Duolingo fundamentals, including its price to sales, book value per share, retained earnings, as well as the relationship between the cash and equivalents and target price . Given that Duolingo has a number of shares shorted of 1.44 M, we urge you to verify Duolingo market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Market Performance	Very Weak	Details
Volatility	Very steady	Details
Hype Condition	Low key	Details
Current Valuation	Undervalued	Details
Odds Of Distress	Very Low	Details
Economic Sensitivity	Almost mirrors the market	Details
Investor Sentiment	Alarmed	Details
Analyst Consensus	Buy	Details
Financial Strenth (F Score)	Strong	Details
Financial Leverage	Not Rated	Details
Reporting Quality (M-Score)	Unlikely Manipulator	Details

Examine Duolingo Stock

Researching Duolingo's stock involves analyzing various aspects of the company and its industry to make an informed investment decision. The key areas to focus on are fundamentals, business model and competitive advantage. It is also important to analyze trends in revenue, net income, and cash flow, as well as key financial ratios, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and debt-to-equity (D/E). About 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years.

To determine if Duolingo is a good investment, evaluating the company's potential for future growth is also very important. This may include expanding into new markets, launching new products or services, or improving operational efficiency. Companies with strong growth prospects can be more attractive investments. This aspect of the research should be conducted in the context of the overall market and industry in which the company operates and should include an analysis of growth potential, competitive landscape, and any regulatory or economic factors that could impact the business. Some of the essential points regarding Duolingo's research are outlined below:

	Duolingo generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
	Duolingo has high historical volatility and very poor performance
	Duolingo is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
	Duolingo has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
	Over 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
	Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Duolingo, Inc. A Bull Case Theory

Duolingo Quarterly Gross Profit

150.62 Million

Duolingo uses earnings reports to provide investors with an update of all three financial statements, including the income statement, the balance sheet, and the cash flow statement. Therefore, it is also crucial when considering investing in Duolingo. Every quarterly earnings report provides investors with an overview of sales, expenses, and net income for the most recent period. It also may provide a comparison to Duolingo's previous reporting period. The quarterly earnings reports are usually disseminated to the public via Form 10-Q, which is a legal document filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission every quarter.

	27th of February 2024 Upcoming Quarterly Report	View
	14th of May 2024 Next Financial Report	View
	31st of December 2023 Next Fiscal Quarter End	View
	27th of February 2024 Next Fiscal Year End	View
	30th of September 2023 Last Quarter Report	View
	31st of December 2022 Last Financial Announcement	View

Earnings surprises can significantly impact Duolingo's stock price both in the short term and over time. Negative earnings surprises usually result in a price decline. However, it has been seen that positive earnings surprises lead to an immediate rise in a stock's price and a gradual increase over time. This is why we often hear news about some companies beating earning projections. Financial analysts spend a large amount of time predicting earnings per share (EPS) along with other important future indicators. Many analysts use forecasting models, management guidance, and additional fundamental information to derive an EPS estimate. Below are the table of largest EPS Surprises Duolingo's investors have experienced.

Reported	Fiscal Date	Estimated EPS	Reported EPS	Surprise
2024-02-28	2023-12-31	0.17	0.26	0.09	52
2022-11-10	2022-09-30	-0.55	-0.46	0.09	16
2022-08-04	2022-06-30	-0.52	-0.38	0.14	26
2024-11-07	2024-09-30	0.935	1.078	0.143	15
2023-11-08	2023-09-30	-0.11	0.06	0.17	154
2023-05-09	2023-03-31	-0.23	-0.06	0.17	73
2023-02-28	2022-12-31	-0.53	-0.35	0.18	33
2024-08-07	2024-06-30	0.32	0.51	0.19	59

Duolingo Target Price Consensus

Duolingo target price is determined by taking all analyst projections and averaging them out. There is no one specific way to measure analysts' performance other than comparing it to past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Duolingo's target price projections below should be used in combination with other traditional price prediction techniques such as stock price forecasting, investor sentiment analysis, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.

Buy

Most Duolingo analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to help potential investors understand Duolingo stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching the public financial statements of Duolingo, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to those companies' conference calls.

Macroaxis Advice Exposure Valuation

Duolingo Target Price Projection

Duolingo's current and average target prices are 301.12 and 347.91, respectively. The current price of Duolingo is the price at which Duolingo is currently trading. On the other hand, Duolingo's target price is what analysts think the stock is worth or could sell for in the future. The more significant the discrepancy between the two prices, the more it stimulates investors to act.

Current Price

Duolingo Market Quote on 19th of March 2025

Low Price	287.14	Odds
High Price	304.62	Odds

301.12 Target Price

Analyst Consensus On Duolingo Target Price

Low Estimate	316.6	Odds
High Estimate	386.18	Odds

347.9121

Historical

Lowest Forecast 316.6

Target Price 347.91

Highest Forecast 386.18

Note that most analysts generally publish their price targets in research reports on specific companies, along with recommendations for the company's stock.Although price targets are often quoted in the financial news media, there could be a delay between the publication of the latest analyst outlook on Duolingo and the information provided on this page.

Duolingo Analyst Ratings

Duolingo's analyst stock recommendations are determined by taking an average estimate of all analysts we track and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell, or Sell. Ratings generally communicate what analysts sense about Duolingo stock, and they use a lot of effort and time to analyze it and arrive at a rating. That suggests that analyst recommendations are the outcome of an objective and thorough examination of Duolingo's financials, market performance, and future outlook by experienced professionals. Duolingo's historical ratings below, therefore, can serve as a valuable tool for investors.

Know Duolingo's Top Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Duolingo is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Duolingo backward and forwards among themselves. Duolingo's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Duolingo's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.

			Shares
	Ubs Asset Mgmt Americas Inc	2024-12-31	124.5 K

Note, although Duolingo's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Duolingo's market capitalization trends

The company currently falls under 'Large-Cap' category with a current market capitalization of 13.31 B.

Market Cap

14.44 Billion

Duolingo's profitablity analysis

	Last Reported	Projected for Next Year
Return On Tangible Assets	0.07	0.07
Return On Capital Employed	0.07	0.07
Return On Assets	0.07	0.07
Return On Equity	0.11	0.11

The company has Profit Margin (PM) of 0.12 %, which maeans that even a very small decline in it revenue will erase profits resulting in a net loss. This is way below average. Similarly, it shows Operating Margin (OM) of 0.07 %, which suggests for every 100 dollars of sales, it generated a net operating income of $0.07.

Determining Duolingo's profitability involves analyzing its financial statements and using various financial metrics to determine if Duolingo is a good buy. For example, gross profit margin measures Duolingo's profitability after accounting for the cost of goods sold, while net profit margin measures profitability after accounting for all expenses. Other important metrics include return on assets, return on equity, and free cash flow. By reviewing multiple sources and metrics, you can gain a complete picture of Duolingo's profitability and make more informed investment decisions.

Evaluate Duolingo's management efficiency

Duolingo has return on total asset (ROA) of 0.0354 % which means that it generated a profit of $0.0354 on every $100 spent on assets. This is way below average. Similarly, it shows a return on stockholder's equity (ROE) of 0.1197 %, meaning that it created $0.1197 on every $100 dollars invested by stockholders. Duolingo's management efficiency ratios could be used to measure how well Duolingo manages its routine affairs as well as how well it operates its assets and liabilities. Return On Tangible Assets is expected to rise to 0.07 this year. Return On Capital Employed is expected to rise to 0.07 this year. At this time, Duolingo's Debt To Assets are quite stable compared to the past year. Return On Assets is expected to rise to 0.07 this year, although the value of Non Currrent Assets Other will most likely fall to about 2.9 M.

	Last Reported	Projected for Next Year
Book Value Per Share	17.50	18.38
Tangible Book Value Per Share	16.86	17.70
Enterprise Value Over EBITDA	198.02	207.92
Price Book Value Ratio	18.53	19.45
Enterprise Value Multiple	198.02	207.92
Price Fair Value	18.53	19.45
Enterprise Value	13.1 B	13.7 B

The management team at Duolingo has a track record of steering the company towards sustained growth. Evaluating their strategies helps in understanding the stock's long-term potential.

Beta

0.922

Basic technical analysis of Duolingo Stock

As of the 19th of March, Duolingo shows the Mean Deviation of 2.86, variance of 16.95, and Standard Deviation of 4.12. Duolingo technical analysis allows you to utilize historical prices and volume patterns in order to determine a pattern that computes the direction of the firm's future prices. Please confirm Duolingo variance and potential upside to decide if Duolingo is priced favorably, providing market reflects its regular price of 301.12 per share. Given that Duolingo has information ratio of (0.04), we urge you to verify Duolingo's prevailing market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.

Duolingo's insider trading activities

Some recent studies suggest that insider trading raises the cost of capital for securities issuers and decreases overall economic growth. Trading by specific Duolingo insiders, such as employees or executives, is commonly permitted as long as it does not rely on Duolingo's material information that is not in the public domain. Local jurisdictions usually require such trading to be reported in order to monitor insider transactions. In many U.S. states, trading conducted by corporate officers, key employees, directors, or significant shareholders must be reported to the regulator or publicly disclosed, usually within a few business days of the trade. In these cases Duolingo insiders are required to file a Form 4 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) when buying or selling shares of their own companies.

		Severin Hacker over a week ago Acquisition by Severin Hacker of 10000 shares of Duolingo at 14.42 subject to Rule 16b-3
		Matthew Skaruppa over a week ago Disposition of 3284 shares by Matthew Skaruppa of Duolingo at 435.28 subject to Rule 16b-3
		Severin Hacker over a week ago Acquisition by Severin Hacker of 10000 shares of Duolingo subject to Rule 16b-3
		Matthew Skaruppa over three weeks ago Disposition of 372 shares by Matthew Skaruppa of Duolingo at 431.4042 subject to Rule 16b-3
		Matthew Skaruppa over three weeks ago Disposition of 260 shares by Matthew Skaruppa of Duolingo at 435.4238 subject to Rule 16b-3
		Stephen Chen over a month ago Disposition of 1331 shares by Stephen Chen of Duolingo at 14.42 subject to Rule 16b-3
		Severin Hacker over a month ago Acquisition by Severin Hacker of 10000 shares of Duolingo at 14.42 subject to Rule 16b-3
		Matthew Skaruppa over two months ago Disposition of 5000 shares by Matthew Skaruppa of Duolingo at 14.42 subject to Rule 16b-3
		Von Ahn Luis over two months ago Disposition of 120000 shares by Von Ahn Luis of Duolingo subject to Rule 16b-3
		Stephen Chen over three months ago Disposition of 275 shares by Stephen Chen of Duolingo at 307.0355 subject to Rule 16b-3
		Ross Bonnie over three months ago Insider Trading
		Severin Hacker over three months ago Disposition of 14115 shares by Severin Hacker of Duolingo subject to Rule 16b-3

Duolingo's Outstanding Corporate Bonds

Duolingo issues bonds to finance its operations. Corporate bonds make up one of the largest components of the U.S. bond market, which is considered the world's largest securities market. Duolingo uses the proceeds from bond sales for a wide variety of purposes, including financing ongoing mergers and acquisitions, buying new equipment, investing in research and development, buying back their own stock, paying dividends to shareholders, and even refinancing existing debt. Most Duolingo bonds can be classified according to their maturity, which is the date when Duolingo has to pay back the principal to investors. Maturities can be short-term, medium-term, or long-term (more than ten years). Longer-term bonds usually offer higher interest rates but may entail additional risks.

AerCap Global Aviation Corp Bond

US00773HAA59

View

View All Duolingo Corporate Bonds

Understand Duolingo's technical and predictive indicators

Using predictive indicators to make investment decisions involves analyzing Duolingo's various financial and market-based factors to help forecast future trends and identify investment opportunities. Select the indicators that are most relevant to your investment strategy. Each indicator has its own strengths and weaknesses, so it's essential to combine multiple indicators to get a more comprehensive view of the market and reduce the risk of making poor decisions based on limited data.

	Risk Adjusted Performance	(0.05)
	Market Risk Adjusted Performance	(0.21)
	Mean Deviation	2.86
	Coefficient Of Variation	(1,615)
	Standard Deviation	4.12
	Variance	16.95
	Information Ratio	(0.04)
	Jensen Alpha	(0.15)
	Total Risk Alpha	0.1882
	Treynor Ratio	(0.22)
	Maximum Drawdown	25.04
	Value At Risk	(6.37)
	Potential Upside	6.82
	Skewness	(0.85)
	Kurtosis	3.39

	Risk Adjusted Performance	(0.05)
	Market Risk Adjusted Performance	(0.21)
	Mean Deviation	2.86
	Coefficient Of Variation	(1,615)
	Standard Deviation	4.12
	Variance	16.95
	Information Ratio	(0.04)
	Jensen Alpha	(0.15)
	Total Risk Alpha	0.1882
	Treynor Ratio	(0.22)
	Maximum Drawdown	25.04
	Value At Risk	(6.37)
	Potential Upside	6.82
	Skewness	(0.85)
	Kurtosis	3.39

Consider Duolingo's intraday indicators

Duolingo intraday indicators are useful technical analysis tools used by many experienced traders. Just like the conventional technical analysis, daily indicators help intraday investors to analyze the price movement with the timing of Duolingo stock daily movement. By combining multiple daily indicators into a single trading strategy, you can limit your risk while still earning strong returns on your managed positions.

	Accumulation Distribution	38554.07
	Daily Balance Of Power	0.7042
	Rate Of Daily Change	1.04
	Day Median Price	295.88
	Day Typical Price	297.63
	Price Action Indicator	11.4
	Period Momentum Indicator	12.31
	Relative Strength Index	35.77

Duolingo Corporate Filings

F4	18th of March 2025 The report filed by a party regarding the acquisition or disposition of a company's common stock, as well as derivative securities such as options, warrants, and convertible securities	View Verify
	17th of March 2025 Other Reports	View Verify
10K	28th of February 2025 Annual report required by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of a company financial performance	View Verify
8K	27th of February 2025 Report filed with the SEC to announce major events that shareholders should know about	View Verify

Duolingo time-series forecasting models is one of many Duolingo's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Duolingo's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Duolingo Stock media impact

Far too much social signal, news, headlines, and media speculation about Duolingo that are available to investors today. That information is available publicly through Duolingo media outlets and privately through word of mouth or via Duolingo internal channels. However, regardless of the origin, that massive amount of Duolingo data is challenging to quantify into actionable patterns, especially for investors that are not very sophisticated with ever-evolving tools and techniques used in the investment management field.

A primary focus of Duolingo news analysis is to determine if its current price reflects all relevant headlines and social signals impacting the current market conditions. A news analyst typically looks at the history of Duolingo relative headlines and hype rather than examining external drivers such as technical or fundamental data. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned thinking related to Duolingo's headlines and news coverage data. This data is often completely overlooked or insufficiently analyzed for actionable insights to drive Duolingo alpha.

Duolingo Sentiment by Major News Outlets

Investor sentiment, mood or attitude towards Duolingo can have a significant impact on its stock price or the market as a whole. This sentiment can be positive or negative, and various factors, such as economic indicators, news events, or market trends, can influence it. When investor sentiment is positive, investors are more likely to buy stocks, increasing demand and increasing the stock price. Positive investor sentiment can be driven by good news about the company or the broader market, such as solid earnings reports or positive economic data.

Note that negative investor sentiment can cause investors to sell stocks, leading to a decrease in demand and a drop in the stock price. Negative sentiment can be driven by factors such as poor earnings reports, negative news about the company or industry, or broader economic concerns. It's important to note that investor sentiment is just one of many factors that can affect stock prices. Other factors, such as company performance, industry trends, and global economic conditions, can also play a significant role in determining the value of a stock.

Duolingo Historical Investor Sentiment

Investor biases related to Duolingo's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Duolingo. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Duolingo can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Duolingo. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.

Duolingo's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Duolingo and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Duolingo news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable the investor's outlook on Duolingo.

Duolingo Maximum Pain Price Across May 16th 2025 Option Contracts

Duolingo's options can also be used to analyze investors' bias and current market sentiment in the context of behavioral finance. For example, Max pain usually refers to a trading concept that asserts that market manipulation can cause the market price of Duolingo close to the expiration of its current option contract to expire worthlessly. According to most research, about 35% of options are not executed, with roughly 50% traded out before expiration. So, Max pain occurs when market makers reach a net favorable position across all options at a strike price where option holders stand to lose the most money. By contrast, option sellers may reap the most after selling more options than buying, causing them to expire worthlessly. Please continue to view the detailed analysis of Duolingo's options.

Duolingo Corporate Management

Stephen Chen	General Counsel	Profile
Linda Simensky	Head Content	Profile
Sam Dalsimer	Global Communications	Profile
Molly Lindsay	Chief Officer	Profile
Robert Meese	Chief Officer	Profile
Kendra Ross	Head Impact	Profile
Cambria Dunaway	Chief Officer	Profile

When determining whether Duolingo is a strong investment it is important to analyze Duolingo's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Duolingo's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Duolingo Stock, refer to the following important reports: