ConocoPhillips (Brazil) Market Value

COPH34 Stock  BRL 51.50  0.65  1.28%   
ConocoPhillips' market value is the price at which a share of ConocoPhillips trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of ConocoPhillips investors about its performance. ConocoPhillips is trading at 51.50 as of the 12th of January 2025, a 1.28 percent up since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's open price was 50.85.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of ConocoPhillips and determine expected loss or profit from investing in ConocoPhillips over a given investment horizon. Check out ConocoPhillips Correlation, ConocoPhillips Volatility and ConocoPhillips Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on ConocoPhillips.
For information on how to trade ConocoPhillips Stock refer to our How to Trade ConocoPhillips Stock guide.
Symbol

Please note, there is a significant difference between ConocoPhillips' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ConocoPhillips is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ConocoPhillips' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

ConocoPhillips 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to ConocoPhillips' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of ConocoPhillips.
0.00
12/13/2024
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 30 days
01/12/2025
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in ConocoPhillips on December 13, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding ConocoPhillips or generate 0.0% return on investment in ConocoPhillips over 30 days. ConocoPhillips is related to or competes with Occidental Petroleum, Devon Energy, Diamondback Energy,, APA, and Petro Rio. ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas , ... More

ConocoPhillips Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure ConocoPhillips' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess ConocoPhillips upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

ConocoPhillips Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for ConocoPhillips' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as ConocoPhillips' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use ConocoPhillips historical prices to predict the future ConocoPhillips' volatility.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
49.5551.5053.45
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
41.4343.3856.65
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
49.8051.7553.70
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
49.0650.7852.51
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ConocoPhillips. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ConocoPhillips' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ConocoPhillips' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in ConocoPhillips.

ConocoPhillips Backtested Returns

At this point, ConocoPhillips is very steady. ConocoPhillips secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0187, which signifies that the company had a 0.0187% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for ConocoPhillips, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm ConocoPhillips' Mean Deviation of 1.33, risk adjusted performance of 0.0253, and Downside Deviation of 2.09 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0364%. ConocoPhillips has a performance score of 1 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0983, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning ConocoPhillips are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, ConocoPhillips is likely to outperform the market. ConocoPhillips right now shows a risk of 1.95%. Please confirm ConocoPhillips total risk alpha, treynor ratio, and the relationship between the jensen alpha and sortino ratio , to decide if ConocoPhillips will be following its price patterns.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.04  

Virtually no predictability

ConocoPhillips has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between ConocoPhillips time series from 13th of December 2024 to 28th of December 2024 and 28th of December 2024 to 12th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of ConocoPhillips price movement. The serial correlation of 0.04 indicates that only as little as 4.0% of current ConocoPhillips price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.04
Spearman Rank Test0.15
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.41
ConocoPhillips ReturnsConocoPhillips Lagged ReturnsDiversified AwayConocoPhillips ReturnsConocoPhillips Lagged ReturnsDiversified Away100%

ConocoPhillips lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is ConocoPhillips stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting ConocoPhillips' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of ConocoPhillips returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that ConocoPhillips has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Dec 30JanJan 03Jan 05Jan 07Jan 09Jan 11-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4% 101001K
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Volume Lagged Volume Prices Lagged Prices
       Timeline  

ConocoPhillips regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If ConocoPhillips stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if ConocoPhillips stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in ConocoPhillips stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Dec 30JanJan 03Jan 05Jan 07Jan 09Jan 1150.050.551.051.5
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Regression Prices Lagged Regression Prices
       Timeline  

ConocoPhillips Lagged Returns

When evaluating ConocoPhillips' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of ConocoPhillips stock have on its future price. ConocoPhillips autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, ConocoPhillips autocorrelation shows the relationship between ConocoPhillips stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in ConocoPhillips.
   Regressed Prices   
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Dec 13Dec 17Dec 21Dec 25Dec 29JanJan 06Jan 1049.049.550.050.551.051.552.052.5
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Lagged Returns Returns
       Timeline  

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in ConocoPhillips Stock

When determining whether ConocoPhillips is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if ConocoPhillips Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Conocophillips Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Conocophillips Stock:
Check out ConocoPhillips Correlation, ConocoPhillips Volatility and ConocoPhillips Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on ConocoPhillips.
For information on how to trade ConocoPhillips Stock refer to our How to Trade ConocoPhillips Stock guide.
You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
ConocoPhillips technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of ConocoPhillips technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of ConocoPhillips trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...
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