China Railway (Germany) Market Value
| CNO Stock | EUR 0.46 0.01 2.22% |
| Symbol | China |
China Railway 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to China Railway's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of China Railway.
| 12/15/2024 |
| 03/15/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in China Railway on December 15, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding China Railway Group or generate 0.0% return on investment in China Railway over 90 days. China Railway is related to or competes with REVO INSURANCE, STMICROELECTRONICS, ELECTRONIC ARTS, Meiko Electronics, CHIBA BANK, and UMC Electronics. China Railway Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated construction company in the Peopl... More
China Railway Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure China Railway's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess China Railway Group upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.23 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0589 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.92 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.17) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.22 |
China Railway Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for China Railway's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as China Railway's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use China Railway historical prices to predict the future China Railway's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0144 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2637 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0369 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.04) |
China Railway Group Backtested Returns
At this point, China Railway is extremely dangerous. China Railway Group secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.01, which signifies that the company had a 0.01 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for China Railway Group, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm China Railway's Mean Deviation of 1.31, risk adjusted performance of 0.0144, and Downside Deviation of 3.23 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0202%. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.26, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning China Railway are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, China Railway is likely to outperform the market. China Railway Group right now shows a risk of 2.02%. Please confirm China Railway Group sortino ratio, potential upside, and the relationship between the jensen alpha and maximum drawdown , to decide if China Railway Group will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.27 |
Weak reverse predictability
China Railway Group has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between China Railway time series from 15th of December 2024 to 29th of January 2025 and 29th of January 2025 to 15th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of China Railway Group price movement. The serial correlation of -0.27 indicates that nearly 27.0% of current China Railway price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.27 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.19 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
China Railway Group lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is China Railway stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting China Railway's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of China Railway returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that China Railway has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
China Railway regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If China Railway stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if China Railway stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in China Railway stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
China Railway Lagged Returns
When evaluating China Railway's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of China Railway stock have on its future price. China Railway autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, China Railway autocorrelation shows the relationship between China Railway stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in China Railway Group.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in China Stock
China Railway financial ratios help investors to determine whether China Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in China with respect to the benefits of owning China Railway security.