Air Lease (Germany) Market Value
| AVLA Stock | EUR 47.60 0.20 0.42% |
| Symbol | Air |
Air Lease 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Air Lease's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Air Lease.
| 11/01/2024 |
| 12/01/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Air Lease on November 1, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Air Lease or generate 0.0% return on investment in Air Lease over 30 days. Air Lease is related to or competes with Superior Plus, NMI Holdings, Origin Agritech, SIVERS SEMICONDUCTORS, NorAm Drilling, Talanx AG, and Identiv. Air Lease Corporation, an aircraft leasing company, engages in the purchase and leasing of new commercial jet aircraft t... More
Air Lease Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Air Lease's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Air Lease upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0523 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.41 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.07) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.05 |
Air Lease Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Air Lease's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Air Lease's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Air Lease historical prices to predict the future Air Lease's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1075 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2178 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0556 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (20.62) |
Air Lease Backtested Returns
Air Lease appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Air Lease secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.14, which signifies that the company had a 0.14% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Air Lease, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of Air Lease's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1075, downside deviation of 1.6, and Mean Deviation of 1.22 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Air Lease holds a performance score of 10. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0105, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Air Lease are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Air Lease is likely to outperform the market. Please check Air Lease's sortino ratio, maximum drawdown, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and treynor ratio , to make a quick decision on whether Air Lease's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.73 |
Good predictability
Air Lease has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Air Lease time series from 1st of November 2024 to 16th of November 2024 and 16th of November 2024 to 1st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Air Lease price movement. The serial correlation of 0.73 indicates that around 73.0% of current Air Lease price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.73 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.56 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.77 |
Air Lease lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Air Lease stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Air Lease's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Air Lease returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Air Lease has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Air Lease regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Air Lease stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Air Lease stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Air Lease stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Air Lease Lagged Returns
When evaluating Air Lease's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Air Lease stock have on its future price. Air Lease autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Air Lease autocorrelation shows the relationship between Air Lease stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Air Lease.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Air Stock
When determining whether Air Lease is a strong investment it is important to analyze Air Lease's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Air Lease's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Air Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Air Lease Correlation, Air Lease Volatility and Air Lease Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Air Lease. For more detail on how to invest in Air Stock please use our How to Invest in Air Lease guide.You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Air Lease technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.